Special offer

You Are NOT Alone!

By
Real Estate Appraiser with PahRoo Appraisal & Consultancy

Hindsight is quite a powerful ability, but foresight, now that is the stuff rock scientists, charlatans and economists.

For every time you have had a conversation in the past year or two regarding, “Did you see it coming?” in regards to the Great Recession of the prior decade, don't worry, you are not alone.

Recently released transcripts of the Federal Reserve’s eight 2006 Federal Open Market Committee meetings showed that the central bank completely missed the oncoming housing bust. Yes, that includes Chairman Ben Bernanke, who did not anticipate the Great Recession.

So, if you are one of those individuals who 'didn't see it', aside from the massive damage and disruption 'it' caused to your life, your business and likely your spirt, you are not alone. Matter of fact, you are in great company, which includes Ben Bernacke, me, you, and an awful lot of our fellow Active Rain members.

But wait, there's more. Time.com reported. “I think we are unlikely to see growth being derailed by the housing market, but I do want us to be prepared for some quarter-to-quarter fluctuations,” Bernanke said in his first meeting as chairman. Good to know that quarter-to-quarter fluctuations equates to ONLY the loss of more than 8 million American jobs during The Great Recession, which economists say was the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

So, next time you are thinking, “Geez, I should have seen it coming” take heart in that No, you should haven't.

 

Michael Hobbs, PahRoo Appraisal & Consultancy

 

 

 

Brint Wahlberg
Windermere Real Estate - Missoula, MT
The Wahlberg Team

I believe though that starting in 2005 a lot of Realtors and industry experts around the nation began to warn of a bubble that was growing.  The argument was that values cannot keep simply going up like they are.  It took a few more years and a lot of denial but eventually the bubble did burst.

Jan 18, 2012 01:14 PM
Joan Congilose
New Jersey Properties - Manalapan, NJ
Helping Sellers & Buyers

You are right , we would have needed a crystal ball to predict such an upset in the housing market. It something that was way out of our hands

Jan 18, 2012 01:19 PM
Michael Hobbs
PahRoo Appraisal & Consultancy - Chicago, IL
SRA, LEED GA, RAA

Brint, very good point.  Yes, hindsight is 20/20...just not necessarily sure what they were looking at.

Joan, that is a good way to put it.  way out of our hands!

Jan 19, 2012 01:27 PM
Don Hess
KW Elite Keller Williams 1280 Plaza Blvd. Lancaster, PA 17601 - Quarryville, PA

I agree with Brint, as early as 2005 when I'd get together with my Realtor friends several were concerned on two counts. First the rapid increase in property values that we were experiencing and second the amount of loans issued to people that deep down we knew would default at the first bump in the road. However, not one of us thought that the result would be as drastic as what occurred. Shows what we knew, huh!

Jan 20, 2012 05:16 AM
Michael Hobbs
PahRoo Appraisal & Consultancy - Chicago, IL
SRA, LEED GA, RAA

Don,

I completely agree with you.  Many a person asked about the run up, but nobody was talking about the run down.  I wish my foresight was as good as my hindsight!

Jan 21, 2012 08:43 AM
BILLY CRITTENDEN
Missoula Valley Properties, LLC - Missoula, MT
Broker/Owner,ABR,CRS,CNE,CNHS,GRI,RCC,SFR,SRS,SRES

Michael,

As many of us have the saying, "When it's too good to be true it usually is". We can no longer think our economy is too big to fail. Common sense solutions are still needed in our country and economy. Thanks for the post!

Aug 14, 2013 06:46 AM