Tracking ‘back to normal’ is an interesting figure as the ultimate idea of what is normal is always changing. Trulia.com did their best to normalize the housing market by looking at
Delinquency-Plus-Foreclosure Rates
With using the highest, pre-bubble standards, and the worst recession numbers and averaging them out, Trulia reached what they defined as their ‘normal’ real estate figures. The results of this comparative analysis are as follows:
- Construction Starts are Sky-Rocketing
“Starts were at a 1,036,000 seasonally adjusted annualized rate – up 7% month-over-month and 47% year-over-year – which is the highest level since June 2008. In March, 38% of new starts were in multi-unit buildings, compared with the typical level of 20%. Construction starts are now 55% of the way back to the normal level of 1.5 million from their low during the bust.”
- Existing Home Sales Droop
“Sales fell 0.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.92 million homes. That’s a 10% increase over one year ago. Excluding distressed sales, conventional home sales were up 23% year-over-year in March. Also, inventory rose even on a seasonally adjusted basis for the second month in a row. Overall, existing home sales are 66% back to normal.”
- Delinquency-Plus-Foreclosure Rates are Falling!
“The share of mortgages in delinquency or foreclosure dropped to 9.96% in March, down from 10.18% in February and 10.98% in March 2012. The combined delinquency + foreclosure rate is 48% back to normal and at its lowest level since October 2008.”
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