Real Estate Daytrader Mentality

So I got off the phone with another "Real Estate Expert" just now and it makes me ill just thinking about how miss-informed that person was about the San Diego Real Estate Market.  It really reminds me of the "Stock Market Experts / Day Traders" that were so common at the end of the 1990's.  You know, right before the market went into a 6 year stagination...

Anyway...  This "Real Estate Expert" explained in depth why the San Diego Real Estate Market was headed for a major correction.  How "Everyone" who has their home in the San Diego mls is in "Major Panic Mode", and how San Diego County Home Values have already gone down double digits over the last 12 months.

Where do these people get their information?

The first question I alwayse ask these self discribed "Real Estate Experts" is...  Where are you getting all of your information?  Of course the number one place each and everyone of these yahoo's comes up will this info

San Diego County Real Estate Prices Increased in 2006!

After the "Real Estate Daytrader" got done telling me what he thought about the market he finally got to the question he called about...  What did I think his San Diego Real Estate investment would do in 2007?  Well,  I said... I don't have a crystal Ball, but I can tell you that your assesment of 2006 was almost completly WRONG... In 2006 San Diego County Real Estate Prices went up in the majority of Zip Codes.  I then directed him to the number one authority site on Home value information DataQuick.    A quick look at DataQuick and you will see that San Diego County is broken down into 91 zipcodes and 5 areas.  Of the 91 zipcodes only 38 zipcodes had total home sales that depreciated in 2006 and only 4 of 91 zipcodes depreciated more then 10%! 

12 of the 91 Zipcodes in San Diego County had Double Digit Price Increases!

Ok, so of the 91 zipcodes in San Diego County 12 had double digit price increases.  This news is being reported by DataQuick, By Sandicor, and Should be reported by the newspapers.  Yet it is not.  Historical price appreciation across the nation over the last 100 years is around 5.6%.  24 of the 91 zipcodes were up over 5.6% or about 26% of the zipcodes in San Diego County appreciated more then the historic national average.  Yet, because home prices didn't go up across the board some how these Daytrader Real Estate Experts seem to think the bottom is falling out of the market???