Though the final numbers won’t be in until Jan 10th, the Northern Virginia real estate market seems likely to report its best sales year since the recession.
While that is great news overall, the average sales price did take a hit, just a small one, for the first time in six years.
So far, 11 out of 12 months have reported and with December’s figures to be posted any day, a total of 20,070 properties have gone to closing in the local area according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR).
This is up 5.3 percent from the 19,063 closings during the first 11 months of 2015. 2016 will for sure pass 2015’s totals. Even though December is typically not a strong sales month in the Northern Virginia area, last year there were 1,623 sales. That’s almost seven times the amount December 2016 would need in order to top 2015’s total.
If this happens, it would be the largest number of sales since 2005, when 29,235 properties went to closing and the market was coming off of a decade-long growth spurt. The recession hit soon after and year-over-year sales went down in seven of the next eight years. It finally turned around in 2012.
In order for the 2016 market to hit a record high sales price it will have to beat $558,988, which was the high set just last year. But the odds are against this happening. For the first 11 months of 2016, the average reported sales price was $555,389, and unless December’s averages come in high, there is no real way to beat last year’s number.
The total sales volume is most likely going to come in higher than it did in 2015. It totaled $11.4 billion. In the first 11 months of 2016, we already topped $11.15 billion.
A spokesperson for NVAR said that the prospect of higher interest rates is likely drawing more potential buyers into the market despite what is typically a soft time of year.
Checking out the last few decades, the average housing price in this region has outstripped inflation. The average price has grown from $50,739 in 1975, breaking the $100k mark for the first time in 1981, the $200k mark in 1991, the $300k mark in 2002 and the $400k mark in 2004. It peaked at just over $538,000 in 2007.
The market then dropped for two years, down to $431,018 in 2009 before it started to rebound again.
In terms of sales, the market peaked in 2004 when 32,735 properties when to closing.
The all-time high in sales volume was not in 2004 when prices peaked, but in 2005, when sales were down 10 percent from a year before but the average prices inflated by 20 percent. Sales volume that year was $15.7 billion.
At The Gresh Group, we use our knowledge of buying and selling in the NoVa market to leverage the best deal possible for you. While the market changes, we stay current on how those changes can impact your ability to buy or sell your home. The right expertise, the right resources, the right team, and the right attitude is what it takes to ensure you have the best representation and achieve the best results. Call us at 703.636.3588 or visit our webpage at SimplyYourBestMove.com.
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