Mortgage bond prices fell pushing mortgage interest rates higher. Inflation fears were fanned by Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments indicating "longer-term inflation expectations have risen in recent months, which is a significant concern for the Federal Reserve." Oil prices retreated to near $122 per barrel the early portion of the week only to bounce higher Friday with prices around $138 per barrel.
For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 1/2 of a discount point.
The consumer price index Friday will be the most important event this week. Trade data and retail sales may also move the market. Expect oil and stocks to continue to factor into trading, as inflation fears remain a concern.
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Economic Factors |
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Economic Indicator |
Release Date Time |
Consensus Estimate |
Analysis |
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Trade Data |
Tuesday, June 10, 2008 |
$59.5 billion deficit |
Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates. |
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Fed "Beige Book" |
Wednesday, June 11, 2008 |
None |
Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates. |
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Retail Sales |
Thursday, June 12, 2008 |
Up 0.6% |
Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
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Business Inventories |
Thursday, June 12, 2008 |
Up 0.4% |
Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly larger increase may lead to lower rates. |
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Consumer Price Index |
Friday, June 13, 2008 |
Up 0.5%, Core up 0.2% |
Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower than expected increases may lead to lower rates. |
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U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, June 13, 2008 |
57.5 |
Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Business Inventories
The report on business inventories basically gives a broader look at the durable goods, factory orders, and retail sales reports. Not only is this report an important part of the investment component of the GDP, but it also provides additional evidence about the economy in the upcoming months. Changes in business inventories slow as the economy approaches a peak, and rise as the economy approaches the trough of a recession. Therefore the change in business inventories is a leading indicator of GDP. The data for this report, which are published by the Department of Commerce's Census Bureau, comes from a monthly survey of inventories, orders, and manufacturers' shipments, in addition to the merchant wholesalers and retail trade surveys.
Not a great amount of attention is typically paid to this report due to the fact that much of the data is already available and surprises are rare. The only new information in this report is retail inventories. However, given the recent negative trend in mortgage bonds, this report may be more of an influence.
The potential for mortgage interest rates to push higher is real considering oil price pressures and inflation concerns noted by Fed Chairman Bernanke. However there still remains some uncertainty and a possibility rates could bounce back a bit following the recent jump higher.
It is important to remember that interest rates tend to improve slowly while negative movements tend to happen fast and furiously. Capitalizing on interest rates at the current levels protects against uncertainty surrounding future interest rate developments.
*Information Courtesy Tonya Esquibel, WR Starkey Mortgage, Franklin/Brentwood TN*
Vanessa Stalets
Brentwood TN Homes
RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400
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