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Recap of First Half 2008 Home Price Performance
The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 3%, to $303,000. The half of 2008 was $275,000 vs. the first half of 2007 was $306,000: a 10% decrease. These numbers will be slightly different than Metrolist, as they are just Denver Metro and don't include outlying areas like Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, or Boulder.
The average price of a foreclosure dropped -6% to $168,000 in the first half of 2008. The average short sale was steady at $212,000. The average price of a non-distress sale decreased 5% to $352,000. Sales volume was down for single family homes. Foreclosure and short sale volume is up and non-distress seller volume is down.
Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in our region. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from July 2007 to June 2008 vs. the twelve months immediately preceding. Next, you'll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the average days on market (DOM) in the last twelve months.
There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales.
The good news is the last four times the market had a change from a buyers market to a sellers market, or vice versa, it was preceded by a change in the DOM. DOM for homes declined in the first and second quarters of this year. Too soon to call it a trend, but it is a favorable sign. Another great indication of hitting the bottom: monthly prices in DSW and AUN have been relatively steady for seven months, after falling rapidly from 2005 to 2007.
Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data
(c) Copyright 2008 Your Castle Real Estate
Porchlight Real Estate Group - Denver, CO
Very interesting that some areas have a relatively high foreclosure rate (above 25%) with a positive average price change. The Baker neighborhood is a perfect example.
Oct 13, 2008 08:47 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Parker, CO
Wow! With all of the negative press on the real estate market it is really great to see how each local market is actually doing independently of one another. It makes sense when you see the map on where many areas are declining. My question is, will the declining markets "shift in the next few quarters?
Oct 24, 2008 04:07 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Littleton, CO
I saw an article in the paper about how many of owner occupants are having a really hard time competing with investors. It seems that even though prices are still declining, the listing brokers for banks are creating bidding situations.
Oct 24, 2008 04:11 AM
Your Castle - Denver, CO
Very useful information for investors. Many people do not know that there are many options when they are helping clients. The more educated your clients are the more deals that will be done.
Oct 24, 2008 04:20 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Parker, CO
As professionals we definitely need more information like this. We need to be educated and keep our clients on top of what is going on in each local market. Thanks for the great info, keep it up.
Oct 24, 2008 04:24 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Denver, CO
Excellent information. The data only confirms what we are seeing on the ground. With information like this my investors and owner occupants can be more educated on making an informed decision.
Oct 24, 2008 04:28 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO
Everyone benefits from information like this. Investors, Realtors, Homeowners all need to have info like this, especially in rough times like the ones we are going through now.
Oct 24, 2008 04:32 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Lakewood, CO
Thanks for the overview. Knowledge is power and we need to make sure our clients and peers are informed. I can't wait to see the next version of this blog. Our clients will continue to benefit from the great info you are posting.
Oct 24, 2008 04:35 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Centennial, CO
Can't wait to see what is happening in the 4Q of this year. It seems that much of the map will stay the same. It would be interesting to hear if any of these areas have it rock bottom.
Oct 24, 2008 04:38 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO
I have a question for other reader's of this blog. Have any of you been experiencing bidding wars for homes that are priced under 150k? I know that almost every offer that I submit under a 150000 will be asking price or above. This is for investors and "retail" buyers. From my point of view this market is very hot. Just yesterday I had to submit an offer almost 40k over asking and I am not sure if we will get it or not.
Oct 24, 2008 05:05 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Littleton, CO
I too have been experiencing that same thing. If the house is in decent shape and is priced correctly by the listing agent it will have multiple offers the first or second day. This maps that Your Castle produce could be heat maps, the red areas represent areas that are on fire.
Oct 24, 2008 05:08 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Highlands Ranch, CO
I am also seeing tons of properties with multiple offers. Just yesterday I walked into a house that went on the MLS that morning. It was about 1 pm and the cleaning crew was just leaving the house. One of the guys said that he just received a call from the listing agent that the house had been sold. That happened in 5 hours!!!
Oct 24, 2008 05:12 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Denver, CO
It all depends on the condition of the property. There are a bunch of listings that have been on the market for a long time under 150000. If they have been on for awhile they usually have major problems or the listing agent has not priced it right and will not budge on price.
Oct 24, 2008 05:23 AM
Porchlight Real Estate Group - Denver, CO
I agree with the previous bloggers. The market is smoking right now for houses under 150k. The trends map that your castle publishes helps push investors and retail buyers to areas of interest. The properties under 150k and that are in the red areas are bought usually within 72 hours if the property is in decent condition.
Oct 24, 2008 05:26 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Highlands Ranch, CO
It is amazing to see how much some of these markets have dropped and look like they are continuing to drop. I hope the bottom is near for some of these communities. On the flip side, what a great market to buy an investment in.
Oct 24, 2008 04:12 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Arvada, CO
Have you heard that the days on market have been decreasing the last two months? I think that maybe we are past the bottom and climbing on up. It will still take some time but I'm seeing the first signs of things turning around.
Oct 25, 2008 02:08 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO
It is amazing to see how much some of these markets have dropped and look like they are continuing to drop. I hope the bottom is near for some of these communities. On the flip side, what a great market to buy an investment in, right?
I saw an article in the paper about how many of owner occupants are having a really hard time competing with investors. It seems that even though prices are still declining, the listing brokers for banks are creating bidding situations.
Oct 25, 2008 03:18 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Denver, CO
Your information reflects a true depiction of what is going on in the Denver market. I like the way you have put this information. It is insightful but matter of fact. Do you send this information to your clients or just use it in your brokerage?
Oct 26, 2008 03:10 PM
Comments(18)