Alas, Has Atlas Finally Shrugged?

By
Home Builder with CREST BACKYARD HOMES, ON THE LEVEL GENERAL & FACTORY BUILT HOME CONTRACTOR, TAG REAL ESTATE SALES & INVESTMENTS 521400, 1501015, 01795582

What Will the Market's New Normal Be?


In a new study, "Housing in America: The Next Decade," Urban Land Institute senior resident fellow John McIlwain says the housing market will not return to what it was prior to the downturn but rather that a "new normal" will take its place.

He expects another 10 percent decrease in residential prices this year, a jump in the number of borrowers abandoning "underwater" mortgages, and a change in consumer perceptions of homeownership.

"The emotional impact on the children and parents and disillusion about the 'joys' of homeownership will be intense; new attitudes to homeownership and the American dream will emerge," McIlwain writes.

He expects home price appreciation to hover around 1 percent or 2 percent per year after the market recovers and the national homeownership rate to drop from 67 percent currently to 62 percent by 2020.

In the coming decade, McIlwain expects the following:

  • Older baby boomers to move to urban, mixed-use, mixed-age centers near family instead of retiring to Sun Belt communities;
  • Immigrants to snub the suburbs in favor of more close-knit communities;
  • Younger boomers to face the challenges of lost home equity and a smaller pool of move-up buyers;
  • Generation Y to rent for long periods by choice or because they are paying off student loans or have stagnant incomes.


Source: Inman News (02/01/10)

(c) Copyright 2010 INFORMATION, INC.

Browse all of today's news

Posted by

Why To Choose Us?

John DL Arenden, Broker 

TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments

TAG (The Arendsen Group) Real Estate Sales & Investments is a full service, one-stop, turnkey, family owned and operated real estate brokerage, General Contractor, Manufactured Home Contractor, Developer, Investor, Property Manager, Interior Design, Engineering, architectural, Landscape design, Expert Witness, Consulting, Curative Title and Troubleshooting company with over 100 years of combined experience in the San Diego real estate sales, construction, design & development arena.

 

 

 

 

SUBSCRIBE TO MY BLOG VIA EMAIL: Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

 

 

close

This entry hasn't been re-blogged:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
Topic:
ActiveRain Community
Location:
California San Diego County Leucadia
Groups:
Active Rain Newbies
LA Connection
Addicted to Active Rain
The Green Zone
MANUFACTURED HOME SALES AND LENDING INDUSTRY
Tags:
finance
loans
mortgage
mobile home finance
manufactured home financing
engineered certification
foundation inspections installations

Post a Comment
Spam prevention
Spam prevention
Show All Comments
Rainer
125,171
Sandra White
John L Scott Real Estate - Port Townsend, WA
Experienced Residential Resale Broker

Wow that is something to think about, but I think it all makes sense and it makes me a bit sad.  Change is hard. 

Feb 04, 2010 01:33 PM #1
Rainer
146,975
Gary Pike
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Metro Brokers - Powder Springs, GA

Interesting insight.  Seems to be a prediction of returning to the 1900's.  Hopefully the change in perception of homeownership will be that it is a home and not an investment with a guaranteed positive return on investment as many have been led to believe over the last couple of decades.

Feb 04, 2010 01:36 PM #2
Rainmaker
643,145
Marchel Peterson
Results Realty - Spring, TX
Spring TX Real Estate E-Pro

I waded through Atlas Shrugged last year and it does appear that Atlas may be shrugging.  Very scary indeed!

Feb 04, 2010 01:47 PM #3
Ambassador
679,000
John DL Arendsen
CREST BACKYARD HOMES, ON THE LEVEL GENERAL & FACTORY BUILT HOME CONTRACTOR, TAG REAL ESTATE SALES & INVESTMENTS - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & Contractor

Sad but so true Sandra. You know that old addage "The only constant in life is change". Well, we're definitely in for some big changes in RE across the board.

We're still not through the sub prime debacle what with 65% failure rate within 6 months of most loan mods.

Now we're looking at jumping through our next two hoops. Prime and Jumbo ARM's resetting.

Add to that the final hoop. The commercial market.

We still have some pretty heavy crosses to bear. I'll put my money on Manufactured Homes, condo's, townhomes and even renting for some time to come.

Feb 05, 2010 03:11 AM #4
Ambassador
679,000
John DL Arendsen
CREST BACKYARD HOMES, ON THE LEVEL GENERAL & FACTORY BUILT HOME CONTRACTOR, TAG REAL ESTATE SALES & INVESTMENTS - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & Contractor

You're spot on Gary. We've been in our home since 1980 and raised our 5 kids here. Just too many precious memories. Frankly I don't even want to know what my home is worth because I have no interest in ever selling it.

Feb 05, 2010 03:13 AM #5
Ambassador
679,000
John DL Arendsen
CREST BACKYARD HOMES, ON THE LEVEL GENERAL & FACTORY BUILT HOME CONTRACTOR, TAG REAL ESTATE SALES & INVESTMENTS - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & Contractor

Wading through is right Marchel. It took me a year to do my wading. Not only am I a slow reader I usually only read in flight, while riding my lifecycle, which I only do when it's raining because the rest of the time I'm either surfing and/or riding my road bike, or on the almighty throne, which thank God doesn't take too long. Hope that's not too graphic. Thanks for the comment.

Feb 05, 2010 03:17 AM #6
Rainmaker
1,431,497
Gene Riemenschneider
Home Point Real Estate - Brentwood, CA
Turning Houses into Homes

Those sound like reasonable predictions.  Of course when an expert predicts something it usually means the opposite will happen.

Feb 05, 2010 03:24 AM #7
Ambassador
679,000
John DL Arendsen
CREST BACKYARD HOMES, ON THE LEVEL GENERAL & FACTORY BUILT HOME CONTRACTOR, TAG REAL ESTATE SALES & INVESTMENTS - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & Contractor

LOL Aint that so Gene?

Feb 06, 2010 02:00 AM #8
Post a Comment
Spam prevention
Show All Comments

What's the reason you're reporting this blog entry?

Are you sure you want to report this blog entry as spam?

Ambassador
679,000

John DL Arendsen

Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & Contractor
Questions about Manufactured Housing?
*
*
*
*
Spam prevention

Additional Information