Breaking News!!! Approximately 93% of Homeowners are just fine!!

I think I'll just be optimistic ....if not for today.

On that note......   wanna cookie?   LMAO now!

Focus on the positive. Great post. Thanks Bryant.

Bryant - That is surprising to hear, even though I haven't dealt with that many distress sales here in Austin.  Thanks for the perspective!

I love this post! And of course those who point out that many of those currently not behind are not going to be fine if they have to move. But I do believe people would make better decisions instead of reacting with fear and confusion, if the drumbeat of doom wasn't all they heard from the media, and from certain real estate agents. Seriously, some agents are so negative about the market, how can they consider it ethical to sell a house? 

I guess we can take heart in the statistic that 93% are not yet in default. That's fine for now.

But the surprise with our current economy, or the new reality is very few homeowners could weather the loss of a job or other unexpected crisis being that so many homeowners equity has been comprimised. When you've earned a high income for years and have 50% equity in a home it's hard to imagine ever having to sell by way of a short sale.

Once upon a time a smart young builder/Realtor/investor owned several properties that added up to a substancial investment. Values went south, there were family issues and we sold several properties, all except the last one. We rented it for 2 years then lost our tenant.

We emptied our savings accounts trying to stay current for 4 years while trying to sell the home, and finally sold it for 12K less than the mortgage. The resulting shame and embarassment is the same . Even though we remain upstanding, hardworking citizens...when we go to buy our next house, or even rent our next house... we still have to reveal my husband's lowered credit score (I thankfully wasn't on the mortgage). It's demoralizing.

That's interesting. How did you even go about pulling the data? In Southern Md, roughly 5-10% of the homes sell each month each zip code whcih means 90-95% do not. Funny how similar the numbers are.

Unfortunately, the mainstream media is never going to carry this story.  I often tell clients not to listen to the national news...real estate is local.

Focusing on what is good is not sexy and usually doesn't seem newsworthy. Yes people forget that 93% of the country is fine but we are inundated with news/media that only focuses on the negative and then its compounded by water cooler talks and TVs turned on at the gym.  I work in 2 different counties Alameda County and Marin County.  Alameda County CA has short sales and REOs on every other block depending on what neighborhood you're looking at, if you look at Marin County CA the stats are pretty good and its only a small segment of the market that is struggling. I tend to see the glass as half full but more than half of my current business is with short sales and more are coming out of the wood works. What I'd like to know is how many of the defaults, short sales and foreclosures are or were owned by Realtors? I'd say at least 25% if not more.

Bryant, when all the screams of foreclosure hit the news last I kept asking what was the national % of foreclosed properties.  I looked and looked and wasn't able to find that percentage.  Having worked in a bank on delinquencies many years ago - I remember that every bank knows that a particular number of loans they put on the books will go into default (car, recreational, mortgage etc) - their business plan allots for it.  So your good news answers that for me.  We are at a 7% delinquency level. 

thanks for the good news this morning... the sky hasn't fallen.

Ah, the never-ending variance between what one would believe if watching too much TV, and what's real. Some days I think we spend more time un-doing the damage the media creates than actually selling homes.

BB~  We have enough people reporting the bad and negative news. It is refreshing to see some postive news for a change. 

BB ~ I wish the media would just tell the real and the rest of the story.  My eyes light up yesterday when I saw a cement mixer truck going down the road and another one loaded with sheet rock.  Spring is here and its a new year.  I did very well the first quarter and looking foward to the rest of the story! 

Is it that unheard of for people to live in their homes for 10-15 years?  You're all making me feel like Grandpa Strohmann yearning for the "good ol days."  In fact, unless you live in a high relo area, just a generation ago, people bought houses, lived entire lifetimes in them, burned their mortgages, and were taken out of them "feet first."  To this day, when I get together with high school friends, most of their parents still live in the homes we grew up in.  (I'm in my late....ok, very late....30s).

So, what's changed?  We started seeing real estate as a wealth accumulation vehicle.  At that shift, you may as well called it real estate investing.  Investing involves risk.  And, as some people enjoyed gains, now some people are experiencing losses.  Just like my 401K is down 50%.  For some reason, it's easier for people to accept those investment losses, than their home investment losses.  

I'm not talking about people who got "caught" with a job loss, divorce, etc.  That sucks.  But for the majority of us who are in homes we can afford, making our payments, I don't think it's all that catastrophic that we have to continue to live in the home for longer before we can afford to move up.  

I actually think the number is even better than you put there.  The media focuses on all the bad and never posts the good. We have to go looking for the good, which is often right under the negative headline.

The most recent delinquency report I saw was just over 6%, Thats delinquent, meaning late... It doesnt mean that they were foreclosed on, it just means Oops, forgot my payment this month.  The actual foreclosure number is still a small small percentage of all home loans. 

that 6+%also doesnt take into account that there are a lot of free and clear properties, which will bring up your 93% even higher. 

Things are not as bad as the media wants us to believe, but the spew the bad so often that it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.

IMHO your post should be headlines on all major networks Bryant - unfortunately media culture is such that negative news sells more.

sincerely,

grace

When unemployment was 7% someone was preaching doomsday on a forum I frequent (where all the participants are anonymous except realtors). When I said that meant 93% of the population was employed, I was raked over the coals as being commission breath realtor trying to manipulate the numbers!!!

Of course here in Phoenix the unemployment is up over 9%, and that is not good, however, I still maintain that  90% of the population is employed. But then again I'm  probably just manipulating the numbers to get clients :-)

Comment #84- Jason- Your comment is right on the money, (pun intended.) While we as realtors tend to look at the immediate product, the house, the property- with the exception of the ones that are owned out fully with no loans- the banks are the problem along with the Federal Reserve and the gov't. i have done intensive research on this and until the banks are forced to stop the lies and accounting fraud- the mortgage backed securities will continue to be the ticking time bomb. We have to let if fall, we have to force the truth- it will be hard- but we are strong and we will get through it. Katerina

Yes! Isn't it ironic how BAD NEWS always outweighes GOOD NEWS?

I am proud to be one of the MANY people who have great equity in my home, and yes we make our payments on time, I am one of the 93% and proud of it!

Fine.  Then we'll have a 93% recovery of the housing market. 

That 93% also includes a huge population of home owners who are prisoners of their mortgage loan.  They couldn't sell if they wanted to.

Hardly the American Dream