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20% Decline in House Prices Says Expert?

By
Real Estate Agent with RE/MAX ELITE, Brevard County FL

Not So Much!

My response to the article from yesterday predicting a 20% drop in Housing will send us into another recession... You know the one all over the internet? Friend of mine believes because the MSM is posting on front page of all internet news...If you are dealing with negativity or doubt, feel free to read this and share..

Steve,

I believe this to be true, you and I have talked about this before but this article sounds too convincing....

Hey! Good to hear from you!

Funny I just read this article yesterday morning! I am not sure, Maybe some areas... I always say There are markets within markets. Our sales have picked up and prices have risen month over month for the past 4 months.

I also have another expert article from Business Insider that puts Florida as best markets to buy now and predict a 7-8% growth for the next 5 years- Particularly (Melbourne-This area made the headline)
I did a story for the newspaper "Florida Today" late last fall about a surge in International Buyers will put Florida back on the map.
Florida has nearly a Third of All Foreign buyers in the USA, and they have Cash and lots of it.
They have a strong currency that makes our properties even more attractive! Beach and River properties are Dirt cheap right now!
Another key is many Baby Boomers are retiring and are looking for an inexpensive place with a better climate and
Quality of living. Central Fl fits The bill! I have clients from GM in Detroit retiring, New York, New Jersey, South Florida too.
Many of the northerners are here now scoping out properties, it's so Hot up North, and they want to have a escape from those extreme climate changes from 105 to 5 degrees in the winter.

Experts are not always full proof. In 2005 a well known chief economist said we are going to have a housing shortage for 5 more years, we all know how that prediction worked out.

In 2009 when the Dow was under 7,000 many experts called for Dow 3,000.... From that point in Dow went on to over 80% gain.
I am very careful listening to experts.
The evidence is in the trenches and what we are witnessing here in this county is very promising.
Year To Date-over 50% of ALL our transactions in this county have been CASH.

I believe there should be less confidence in the Stock Market than in Housing. Based on what is taking place, I believe many other folks believe a house is a more tangible asset and something you can live in or rent out for cash flow.

We are witnessing some shortages in select sizes..
Our rental market is on fire and as we have less houses on the market our prices will continue to edge higher.

I'm sure there are and should be some validity to this article, and there might be some declines in markets.
And this isn't news hot off the press, this has been talked about alot since late last year and some that were on the fence to buy believed it but are watching homes go under contract in some cases 2 days.
I have recently read an article the excerpt was- "Don't worry about housing reports and predictions, focus on your work and your customers and we will all be better off"... That's basically what I am trying to do, just make a living and provide the best service to my clients, the market will take care of the rest if we take care of business and not focus on Negativity!

Take Care,

Steve

NOT ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL! If your in the hunt for a NEW or Existing Home and Want to have 5 Star Serviceand TOP NOTCH FULL Buyer Representation, to have someone looking out for your best Interest throughout the ENTIRE TRANSACTION, CALL or EMAIL STEVE TODAY!

If you would like to browse Homes for Sale on the Brevard MLS FOR FREE! Be My Guest! Click This Link FREE MLS SEARCH

Have a Great Day!

 

Steve Vitani- Realtor

Viera Luxury Home Expert

David Shamansky
US Mortgages - David Shamansky - Highlands Ranch, CO
Creative, Aggressive & 560 FICO - OK, Colorado Mtg

I got off a conference call with a hedge fund manager yesterday and the word on the street is if the feds actually shut down they believe a worst case scenario is over 40% decrease???

Its only an opinion but considering the source make you wonder what may lie ahead.

Jul 16, 2011 07:57 AM
Gene Riemenschneider
Home Point Real Estate - Brentwood, CA
Turning Houses into Homes

Each market is local.  As financing becomes a nationwide issue though one or two moves by the Federal Government could send the housing market up or down sharply. 

Jul 16, 2011 08:19 AM
Ken Anderson
Apex Results Realty Inc., Brokerage - Burlington, ON
Broker in Burlington, Ontario

Buyer client:  "Do you think they're right about the market dropping 20%?"  Me:  "I dunno, want to buy a house for your family?"

Wasn't so long ago an 'expert', I believe a minister from California, predicted the world would end on May 12, 2011?  Hundreds of families sold or gave away everything and stood on a hill somewhere to await armageddon.  Well, financially, it became armageddon for them and their loved ones.

Don't believe in predictions from so-called 'experts' and act on them to your detriment.  Go about your life as you should, looking out for you and yours.  Live within your means, and you will be proven right in the end.

Jul 16, 2011 08:33 AM
Andrew Jones
Horizon Pacific Realty - Los Angeles, CA
LA Beach Cities Homes 310-399-3740

Hi Steve,

Nobody has a crystal ball and I don't know if housing prices are going to go down again, though there certainly is more room for depreciation in some areas like Los Angeles. On the other hand, some markets (like Las Vegas & I'm guessing some parts of Florida too) are so severely under-valued all ready that it's hard to imagine prices going down much further. Of course prices in thes areas may stay down longer as well as under-valuation is a double-edged sword in regards to the opportunities and liabilities.

There is one other thing to consider when it comes to the big picture on real estate valuation in the U.S. in particular. Most Americans except for the very young grew up in a country that was enjoying the enormous subsidies to our lifestyle (& real estate valuation) generated by our global dominance following WWII. All the 'American' corporations were still actually American corporations as well.

We're now competing on a much more level playing field and most of the big corporations all over the world are setting up shop in international waters. In short, we're paying a dollar on the dollar for our bananas now instead of 5 cents and a lot of companies are taking their balls and going home (to their new homes.)

This fundamental, long-term readjustment is bound to have an impact on real estate values though property in the States will still probably enjoy preferred valuation as a developed nation and like Paris, everybody still wants to come here. 

Jul 16, 2011 08:47 AM
Jerry Mueller
Jerry Mueller Real Estate - Bethany Beach, DE

House prices are locally regional.  In our local region prices have stabalized although if the government keeps scaring folks then no one will buy no matter what the price.  Please check out my blog. jerry@sellsproperty.com  www.sellsproperty.com Jerry Mueller

Jul 16, 2011 08:49 AM
Devona Garrigus
Garrigus Real Estate - Redlands, CA
REALTORĀ® / Short Sale Specialist

Steve- I agree with you completely. Experts are NOT fool proof, and unfortunately negative news sells better than good news.

P.S. - Reblogged!

Jul 16, 2011 09:36 AM
Karen Steed
Tallapoosa, Bremen, Waco, Buchanan, Temple, Carrollton - Tallapoosa, GA
Associate Broker Haralson Realty

Since all real estate is local. any prediction can be right or wrong.  If you have good credit and a job, and are in a place in your life when home ownership will work, then now is a good time to buy.  Rates are low, and inventory is good in most areas.  Some homes may fall another 20% but all homes will not fall 20%

Jul 16, 2011 09:55 AM
Robert Courtney
Lihue, HI
Century 21 All Islands, RA, CDPE, MCRE, CIAS
So many have got it! By the work we do, day in and day out, we move the market like traders on the floor of the stock exchange. We just do not have all the stress! 8-)
Jul 16, 2011 10:27 AM
Michael Smith
Michael Smith (Homexpo Realty) - Orlando, FL

I wonder how these people get the title "expert" they are almost always wrong. Maybe the mean expert guesser.

Jul 16, 2011 01:58 PM
Anonymous
Mark Cohen, Broker, Gainesville, Florida

I keep hearing that this recession ended 2 years ago.  Huh?  Who are the moron economists who define what a recession is?  Most of this country has not been in a recovery for the last 2 years.  It has gotten worse, not better.  There can't be a double dip when it hasn't changed from the first dip.

Jul 16, 2011 03:06 PM
#60
Steven Pahl
Keller Williams Tampa Properties - Tampa, FL
Real Estate Consultant Tampa, FL 813-319-6423

Our local paper ran two stories on the housing market this week on consecutive days, one basically said housing prices rise as the inventory falls.  The next day the article read housing prices fall as more foreclosures are release into the market by banks.  Same writer!

Jul 16, 2011 03:49 PM
David Snell 704.545.0098
WWW.ExecutiveRestoration.Com - Charlotte, NC
CERTIFIED MOLD INSPECTOR, CERTIFIED MOLD REMOVAL.

Such wonderful coments on here.

If any of you guys need work or know of folks who need work and can sign folks up on our directory then we are hiring.

Hold on tight guys.  I believe things will get better but some times we have to be creative and think out side the box and 

even do more than we are used to.

If I can help any one of you please reach out to me to network with us or even come work for us if you need more work and you can stay in the city and state that you are in and work in if you have a computer and phone.  I am not spamming here but just trying to help those who are in need and need more work and more money.  I have many ideas on how we can help you if you or any one of you know others who do not have the business they need.

Blessings on all of you,

David Snell

SnellExperts.com

Jul 16, 2011 05:06 PM
Joseph Robinson
Coldwell Banker Paradise, Satellite Beach, FL - Melbourne, FL
Melbourne Florida Homes for Sale, MLS Real Estate Search

Hey Steve.  Congrats on the feature!  I've so tuned out the media these days.  If it bleeds it leads.  They way I see it, it's a market.  Regardless of the industry, saavy investors learn to be productive when the market is "up" and when it is "down".  I appreciate your insight.

Jul 16, 2011 06:42 PM
Logan Payne
Orlando Financial Cenetr, Inc. - Orlando, FL
Hello Steve! Please tell me the news paper and article you are referring to. Thank you, Logan
Jul 16, 2011 11:25 PM
Lyn Sims
Schaumburg, IL
Real Estate Broker Retired

Like Carla said, are they really experts or just pimping their product on national TV? The talking heads just read what is put in front of them. I know I'm the expert in my area & every market is local & then there are micro markets inside those. I hope FL is doing better & I believe it's a good area with lots of potential for anybody. I also see alot of 'cash' transactions here & I laugh because people say 'where is all this money coming from?'  Well, it's there, maybe in mattresses, I'm not sure.

Jul 17, 2011 08:17 AM
Kathie Burby
Coldwell Banker Mother Lode Real Estate - Sonora, CA
REALTOR, SFR, Tuolumne County Real Estate Guide

Yes I too have seen the article. I had a lengthy conversation with one of my clients (whose also a banker). I had to remind my client that all real estate is LOCAL. While the author may be a well known economist he is not able to predict what is happening in my area.

Jul 17, 2011 01:06 PM
Fred Griffin Florida Real Estate
Fred Griffin Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Licensed Florida Real Estate Broker

If you are an Investor concerned about ROI and Appeciation, then get seriously concerned about where the Market is headed (and good luck figuring it out).

If you are looking to buy a Home for your Family, then look for a Nice House in a Great Neighborhood that fits your needs and desires.  If it is within your Financial Means, then BUY IT!

Jul 17, 2011 05:39 PM
Anonymous
Bobi

I strongly doubt that we will see a 20% decrees in housing prices, as you said 'experts are not always full proof' as a matter of fact if you look back on history you will see these so called experts have been wrong more then they have been right!

 

Being from New Englang I have to admit I too have been looking at properties in FL. I love our summer weather here but I don't ski and over the past 5 years the thought of 'escaping from our extreme climate of - 5 degrees winters' has been sounding more and more appealing.

 

 

Jul 18, 2011 04:27 AM
#68
Gerard Gilbers
Higher Authority Markeing - Asheboro, NC
Your Marketing Master

Since "all real estate is local", these statistics are different for different areas of the country and even different areas of a state! It is important to track results on an ongoing basis.

Jul 18, 2011 03:14 PM
Mike Henderson
Your complete source for buying HUD homes - Littleton, CO
HUD Home Hub - 303-949-5848

Brilliant analysis of the current situation.

Sep 11, 2011 01:13 PM