The Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho is bringing their 2009 Parade of Homes to the Treasure Valley beginning Saturday April 25th and running through May 10th.  Weekday hours are 5PM to 8PM, Fridays are 3PM to 8PM, and Saturday and Sunday hours are Noon to 8PM.  This year the Parade of Homes is FREE!  No tickets are required.

Reflecting the slower housing market, there are just 17 new homes on the Parade this year, but they are homes presented by many of the Valley's best builders including Tahoe Homes, The Marrs Company, Capitol Building, Brighton Homes, Crocker homes, Borup Construction, James Clyde Custom Homes, Boise Hunter Homes, Berkeley Building Company, Roth Homes, Flynner Homes, and Eric Evans Construction.

There is an excellent clickable tour map online at the BCA website.  You can also click through to previews of each home.

I just got my latest newsletter out, and here is the most recent real estate update I sent to my friends and past clients...

As expected, January usually sets the low mark for the year for Ada County home sales and that is true again for 2009.  Single Family Homes sold in January were a meager 237, a 23% decline from January 2008.  Remember that I mentioned in the December newsletter that last year we started the year with a 38% decline, so you know I am looking for bright spots.  Traffic at Open Houses and individual showings have both been lower than we've been used to, although with the low interest rates of the last couple weeks that is changing.

One sign of that is the increasing number of contracts Pending.  Currently there are 527 homes under contract which is a big jump from the 459 we started the year with.  One of my Title company contacts told me that they saw a number of sales close with loans at rates below 5% a week or so ago (although the rates have again gone back over 5% for now).  Rates at that really historic  low make it  easy for some to make the decision to buy.  And considering that the inventory of active listings hasn't changed from January's 3635, perhaps we are in a calmer place in our market.

One interesting thing the data shows is that the sales are being made in a bit lower price level in the market.  Last year's median price in January was $217,500, while this year it was $180,000.  This is a 17% decline year over year.  While that implies lower prices, it also more strongly indicates that buyers are working in the lower levels of the market.  The "expensive new construction boom" we had two and three years ago is over,  so those sales don't affect our numbers as strongly as they did then.  Another way to show that is to see that of the sales in January this year, 60% of them were homes priced below $200,000.  Last January only 40% of the homes sold were below $200,000, and in 2007 it was barely 36%.  That is quite a market change!  And one last tidbit, it should come as no surprise to know the length of time on market has increased from 73 in 2008 to 90 days this year,  according to MLS figures.

We don't know what 2009 will bring, but if you plan to buy or sell this year and I can be of service to you, please call me.  And if not you, I would love your referral for a friend.
Thanks!   Bill    (208) 921-9512

"Deck the horse with boughs of holly
Fa la la la lah..."

The annual Boise Christmas Parade takes place Saturday November 29th in downtown Boise.  The parade begins at 9:45AM, starting from the Morrison Center and proceeding north down Capitol Boulevard, west on Battery Street, then south on 9th to the finish on University Drive.  This is a wonderful holiday parade featuring all of the things the big television parades lack, including antique cars, lots of local horse and rodeo groups, local businesses, and school marching bands.  The weather promises to be clear and bright, and cold, so dress the kids warmly, bring a thermos, and turn out for a great old fashioned style holiday parade.  This is one of those quality of life events that get Boise on so many "top places" lists.

In September we saw an increase in closed sales over the year before. It was a situation that the local and national papers heralded as very good news for the troubled housing market. I even heard one local radio real estate show suggest we'd see a strong rebound in October, November, and December. I warned that the number could also be due to the big mortgage stumble in August of 2007. So, how did we come out in October? Did we pass the bottom, or was it just a hiccup?

Ada County home sales for October come in at 409 for Single Family homes (no acreage, condos, mobiles, or townhomes). Last year in October there were 463 sales. That is a 12% drop, and puts us back on the track of declining sales we've been on all year long. The economy is on many minds, and mortgage rates rose a bit at the beginning of the month of November, although they have come back in the last few days. Anecdotally, many agents at the beginning of the month had reported fewer showings and less urgency in their buyer clients. It is a difficult time if you are a seller who has to move, or you're trying to sell a home in a hurry. Plan on being super clean and priced very competitively.

One bright spot in the market is the continuing decline in inventory. Currently there are 4175 Single Family homes on the market in Ada County. Last year at this time there were nearly 4500 active listings. Pending sales are slightly lower this year compared to the number we saw last year, with 457 contracts waiting to close right now. So with inventory declining, pendings remaining firm, and the rate of decline easing up from the beginning of the year is it time to join radio-guy and call the bottom? No. But it isn't the end of the world either. In fact, prices in the Treasure Valley are more affordable than they have been in a couple of years. If you are a buyer, be happy, and go shopping.

If you're a seller though, you need to be aware that we are still considering this a "declining market".  Granted, the Treasure Valley area isn't seeing the same degree of price declines other markets have seen.  According to the Idaho Business Review, our area is showing less than half the decline the National numbers show.  "Nationally, the October median existing-home price is down 17.3 percent from its 2008 high in June, from $215,100 to $183,300, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. In Ada County, prices declined in that same period from a median of $209,900 to $195,400, or just 7.6 percent, according to data from the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service."  Other data providers suggest our rate of decline could be as high as 1% per month.

Bottom line if you're a seller?  Believe what your Realtor tells you about the market price your home can be expected to bring today.  The old trick of pricing it a little high and letting the market reach up to get you has not worked in years, yet we continue to see it.  If the goal is to sell the property, and if you really must move on, then price it where it will sell.  There is no magic in this market, and there are no agents who can really sell your property for what it might have gotten last year, or what you "need", or what you "know it's worth".  Meet the market on its terms and you will be successful in selling your home.

In normal years past we've usually seen the highest monthly sales during the month of June or July. It appears that our market has settled down to a normal flow, even if the total sales figure is smaller than we'd like.  Single Family home sales in Ada County for the month of July were 489.  That is from early numbers, and they might find a few more reported in the next week or so.  That is slightly below June, which looks like a normal sales pattern.  I mentioned last month that the percent below a year ago was better at 25%, and that has  held in  July at a  26% decline.

Another encouraging number is a slight decrease in single family homes inventory, to 4634.  This leaves out townhomes, condos, and homes with acreage.  Pessimists may point out that small decrease is not significant, but I see this as the first month all year we haven't had more homes for sale than we started with.  The pending contracts number is steady at 661, which is 12 fewer than the beginning of July, and about 10% fewer than last year at this time. 
Last year we had more than 7 months worth of inventory this month.  Today we have at least 10 months.  That rise happened early in the year, and the majority of those homes are existing homes for resale, not new construction.

Sellers are finding it hard to adjust to current market prices.  Those prices aren't set by Realtors, or appraisers, or tax assessors, they are set by people who actually paid money for homes in this market.  There is still a gap between what buyers want to pay and what sellers want to receive.  And as has been the case all year in our market, the best conditioned homes with the best prices have been selling, while the rest just sit.

Another modest improvement for Single Family home sales in Ada County for the month of June continues our string of higher sales numbers.  There were a total of 535 SF properties sold during the month.  Last year there were 710 sales for June.  The bright spot of that comparison comes while looking at the trend, which also continues to improve.  Remember that our declines are getting smaller each month, going from a 42% decline at the beginning of the year to a 25% decline in June.

Another trend to watch is the number of homes currently listed.  As expected, this number has increased each month as more homes come on the market.  Part of this is seasonal.  We started the year with around 3800 active SF listings, and that number climbed rapidly each month, as it does in any normal year.  The increase over the last month has slowed considerably, for a total of 4648.  That is only 80 more than last month, and roughly where we were last year at this time.  Encouraging news, I'd say.  And pending sales are down slightly to 673.

One item I found interesting at the beginning of the month was a look at the rental market in Ada County.  As prices for homes rose so rapidly in 2006, and home sales  slowed  down in 2007,  the number of available homes for rent went down sharply and the prices firmed up.  Vacancy rates last summer for 3 bedroom, 2 bath homes  got into the low single digits, and rents got up close to $980-$1000 in some neighborhoods.  This summer however, we see that trend reversing.  Vacancy rates by some measures are around 7-8%, and the price is back around $910-$925.  This gives us an overall housing market that is full of choices at much more attractive prices, whether you are a renter or a buyer. And with interest rates still low, but starting to creep up, I give the nod to the buyers.

Meridian Dairy Days is coming at the end of this week, June 18th through the 21st, highlighted by the parade on Friday evening.  This is truly one of our best small town events here in Meridian, and the weather looks like it's going to be perfect.  Last year there were thousands of folks who turned out to see the parade, which features tractors, horses and riders, a number of very creative floats, the cheer squads , bands, and teams from the local schools, lots of classic cars, and a few racing cars from Meridian Speedway.  A great time for everyone, celebrating our dairy heritage, and our small town Idaho community.

The parade stages on Watertower, and gets started at 7pm, running North down Main Street, then back up 2 1/2 and 3rd Streets.  Come early, pick your spot, and remember to cheer for the Meridian Lions and the Rodeo Queens.

There will also be a carnival at Storey Park from Wednesday through Saturday, and the Meridian Chamber's Pancake Feed returns Thursday evening beginning at 5pm with a symphony to follow.  Friday night also marks the start of an arts and crafts fair featuring 80 vendors.

The Dairy Days celebration wouldn't be complete without cows and goats, so on Saturday, all day, there will be a cow and goat show, along with a number of educational exhibits for everyone to enjoy.  See the Chamber of Commerce website for more info.  See you there!

Home sales in Ada County during May showed a modest improvement over April's numbers, with 504 single family homes closed for the month.  While that doesn't seem like much, the monthly increases are showing a normal trend for this time of year.  We have a market that is acting normally, albeit at lower levels than we are used to seeing.  Last year we had 735 homes sold, so our sales as of May  this year are down 33% from a year ago.  Remember that in April we were 34% behind, and before that we had been as high as 42%.  We seem to be trending in the right direction.  Today, sales for the month of June to date are only 16% behind the same date last year.

Currently there are 4658 active listings on our MLS, which is a bit higher than last year's 4524, and nearly one hundred more than we had at the beginning of the month.  That doesn't help the sellers to get better prices for their homes, since there are still plenty of choices on the market, in all price ranges.  The lower end homes are selling well, as would be expected, with the best conditioned homes occasionally drawing multiple offers.  Price and condition remain the key to selling homes in this market.
 
There are 718 pending contracts on the market now, which is slightly higher than last month.  What is encouraging about that is the comparison to last year.  The decline from a year ago in sales has been getting better as I mentioned.  But the difference in this year's pendings to last year's is getting better even faster.  Pendings at the end of May were only 19% below a year ago, where sales were 33% below.  I would expect that to translate into firmer sales figures going through the summer months, and so far that is holding up.

Everything considered, it is still a buyer's market.  There is plenty to chose from out there right now, and prices are back to levels that make much of Ada County very affordable.  Sellers need to price their properties correctly, and then have them looking their very best, in order to find a willing buyer.  Homes priced even a little over market are not getting showings, where others that are priced correctly are seeing many showings and even multiple offers.

The most frequently asked question right now is "Are any houses selling?"  Some folks seem surprised when I tell them, yes, homes are selling in the Treasure Valley right now.  Definitely not on the same pace as two summers ago, but better than we saw over the winter.  In fact, the 460 homes that sold in Ada County in April is the best showing we've had since August last year, when the mortgage lending problem happened.  Year over year, April '08 was 34% below '07, but we've been 38 to 42% below in recent months.  For the valley as  a whole, 634 single family homes sold in April.  Pending home sales are holding steady at 700 in Ada county as I write this.

Currently there are 4460 active listings for single family homes in Ada County, 6558 for the Treasure Valley area represented by Ada and Canyon counties.  That is a great deal of inventory, and that is the primary reason for the soft house prices.  There is just too much out there for buyers to choose from, and successful sellers are having to be negotiable on price.  Some areas are holding up better than others, of course, but there are no "hot" areas right now, so it remains a buyer's market.

One of the other questions that comes up frequently concerns short sales and foreclosures.  To listen to the National media, the real estate market is swamped by people losing their homes.  That is not the case in our market, although we have seen an increase in short sales.  That is definitely not a significant portion of our market right now though. Of the 6558 actives in two counties on MLS right now, only 69 show as short sales (using a simple search of the mls). 
 
Is this the right time for YOU to be considering buying a new home?  If you, or someone you know is interested in buying or selling a home in the Meridian and Boise areas, please call me.  I'd love to help you get started!  

It's time again for the Parade of Homes!  The 2008 Parade of Homes by the Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho will take place beginning Saturday April 26th through Sunday May 11th.  This year there are a few less than the 37 new homes that were on the Parade last year, but this year's entries promise to be just as stunning.  Communities from Kuna, Eagle, Hidden Springs, Meridian, and Boise are again represented.  In addition to familiar names like Tuscany, Paramount, Crossfield, Bridgetower, and Saguaro Canyon, you'll find newcomers like Avimor, Englefield Green, and Alpine Point. 

The 27 builders presenting homes this year include Eaglewood Homes, Westminster Homes, Suncor Idaho,Thompson Homes, Kastera Homes, Guaranteed Quality Construction, Whitney Homes, Canyon Crest Homes, Brighton Homes, Diamond Ridge Construction, Creekside Custom Homes, Tahoe Homes, Ted Mason Signature Homes, Zach Evans Construction, J. Edward Homes, Borup Construction, Markar Design & Construction, The Legend Company, and Hubble Homes.

These builders have brought together a great collection of new homes in a variety of sizes, and the prices reflect the changing market this year (no entries in the $6M range).  A wide variety of styles is in this collection as well, including townhomes, California Spanish, European, French Country, and Craftsman.  If you love looking at homes, or want to go looking for home project ideas, this is the premier home tour of the year for the Treasure Valley.

The Parade Homes are open daily from 5pm until 8pm weekdays (3pm opening on Fridays), and from noon until 8pm on weekends.  Tickets are required, and they can be purchased at most Select-A-Seat locations, where you can also pick up a magazine format program which describes all of the homes, and explains more about the BCASWI.  You purchase your ticket ahead of time ($10 each, but not available at the homes) and present it at the first home you wish to see.  It is exchanged for a puchcard which you present at each home.  In a change from previous years, my understanding is that the ticket will allow unlimited entries to each home.  In the past, the punchcard allowed you to see each home once plus 5 re-entries you could use if you wished to see your favorites another time or two.  Yes, people do come back multiple times to see some homes.  Give yourself a number of evenings and weekend days if you intend to see all of them.  And remember to wear slip-off shoes or sandals (hopefully Spring will come in time for the Parade). 

I hope to see you out there.