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96% or 4%

By
Real Estate Agent with 410-935-5844 Office 634480

96% or 4%

To which group does your Seller belong?

Let us assume, based on data that I have seen, that 30% of Homeowners own their homes free and clear, or that they have no mortgages or liens against their homes.

Second, of those remaining 70% of Homeowners who have mortgages, 94% of them are not  behind on their payments or in danger of foreclosure or the like.  This is equivalent to 65.8% of all Homeowners.

The combined total of the 30% of Homeowners, who own their homes without a mortgage, plus the 65.8% of Homeowners, who are not behind on their mortgages, equals a total of 95.8% of all Homeowners.

Almost 96% of all Homeowners are not in danger of foreclosure and the remaining 4% are in danger.

In the current realty market, nearly 50% of all sales are for distressed properties, or Sellers, who are from the 4% of Homeowners who are having difficulty making their payments.

In a normal market, these distressed sales would be ignored, when doing a comparison to determine a reasonable price for a home, because they would be a much lower percentage of the homes on the market.

In today's market, however, it is hard to ignore this large part of the market.

As Real Estate Agents, we understand all too well, the importance of price when selling a property.  The generally accepted rule is that if the property is not selling, then the price is too high.

Granted, there are other factors which are impacting price, but to a large extent the fall in prices has been related to this 4% of Buyers who have not been able to make their payments.

Now, let us assume that a Homeowner wishes to sell his or her house.  If they are from the 4% group, then they will likely have a lower price, a fact which would be true even in a strong market.

If the Seller were from the 96% group, then, in order to compete, given that so many distressed properties are on the market, they would most likely need to lower their price.

The question is asked again: to which group does your Seller belong, the 96% or the 4%?

If 96% of Homeowners are not having a problem, then why should the value of their home be so drastically reduced?

Once the market clears itself of this 4%, will prices go back up to the values which were established just a few short years back?

Can we blame this overwhelming majority of Homeowners for not wanting to accept that their homes have substantially depreciated in value given that it was caused by a small 4% of Homeowners?

Melissa Zavala
Broadpoint Properties - Escondido, CA
Broker, Escondido Real Estate, San Diego County

I love statistics like these; they seem to eaither poke fun at the madness or put it all in perspective.

Jul 28, 2009 08:08 AM
Bill Ladewig
LoanOfficerSchool.com - Escondido, CA
Experience Is Your Advantage

Good analysis Ron, there is no question there are a huge number of foreclosures by normal standards but most people are making their payment.  Part of the problem is the media that seems to blow everything out of proportion.

Jul 28, 2009 08:28 AM
Linda Lipscomb
Linda Lipscomb RE/MAX Lexington Henderson County TN - Lexington, TN
731-695-1118, Lexington TN Homes

Well, when you put it like that......seems pretty insignificant,  unless of course, you're in the 4%.

Yes, we can thank the media for all this.  They just can't seem to get it right.

Jul 28, 2009 08:38 AM
Donna Harris
Donna Homes, powered by JPAR - TexasRealEstateMediationServices.com - Austin, TX
Realtor,Mediator,Ombudsman,Property Tax Arbitrator

Great breakdown. I love numbers!  I do find it hard to believe that 30% of all home owners own their homes outright, but I'm sure it's possible in other parts of the country.

Jul 28, 2009 08:43 AM
Kevin & Cindy Kenagy
Premiere Property Group, LLC - Salem, OR
Helping people buy and sell their homes.

Love the analysis Ron and a great post. Have a great day.

Jul 28, 2009 09:02 AM
Anonymous
Joe Coolie

Hi Ron,

Finally, an agent who doesn't talk about lowering the price of the home to sell it.  It seems like that's all that agents know.

Aug 28, 2009 01:44 AM
#6
Karen Krzniak
Zenith Realty - Towson, MD

Ron,

It is amazing how the poor can rule the world.

Dec 08, 2010 06:44 AM