Where will Mortgage Rates be this week?
I cant believe that summer is over. Where did this year go? Well The kids are back in school, and we still have work to do! Last week ended up slightly positive. We had a bit of a sell off towards the end of the week as I had expected with the long weekend, The last week of the summer is always a thinly traded week, but over all it was a positive one, and the past month has bee a very positive one for rates.
Moving forward this week, Here is what we have on the calendar:
- Monday: No business on Labor day!
- TuesdaySeptember 8: Treasury auction of $13 Billion in 3 year notes. The near term inflation numbers have been weak, and this being a short term security it should be fairly well bid, The auction starts at 1pm, and as I type this it appears to be going well with mortgages trading slightly higher in price. (which means the potential of lower rates today)
- WednesdaySeptember 9: Auction # 2 with $20 Billion in 10 year notes. This is expected to be a fairly easy sell to investors, but it is similar to mortgages and if investors are not happy with the yield and it gets pushed up, we may see mortgage rates creep up at the same time.
- ThursdaySeptember 10: Initial jobless claims expected down 5,000. Jobs are not expected to rebound any time soon, so there should be no surprises in this report that will move rates.
- Thursday: Auction #3 with $12 Billion in 30 year Bonds. I expect to see the Fed step in here and buy some of these if it is poorly bid. We only have about a month left of the Fed with an open check book to buy Treasuries and Mortgages. Comes October I am a little worried.
- Friday September 11: PLEASE PUT OUT A FLAG TODAY!!! Mine is always flying, but I will probably dip it to half mast....
- Friday: July Wholesale Inventories expected -1.0% vs. last month -1.7%. While this is an old number that is not likely to cause any ripples this week in the market, It is a sign that we may see factory orders bump up soon since Business Inventory has been shrinking all year. Once we see orders up it may be a sign of growth, inflation and rising rates.
Well this week we do not have any exciting or fresh data on the calendar. So from a market perspective we will see trading in Mortgages taking direction from both the stock market and the Treasury Auctions. We have seen a happy stock market for most of the summer months. If we see some profit taking in stocks along with well bid auctions it could be a recipe for noticeable improvement in Mortgage Rates. I actually feel that we will see a bumpy week, losing some ground with the 10 year auction on Wednesday and by time it is all played out we will probably have a fairly flat week by the end of the day on Friday with rates basically unchanged.
That's this weeks 2 cents worth!
Have a great week
Rob
Mortgage Banker
www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf
(732)223-1630 x102
Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!
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