Last week ended up being a fairly quiet one with out any surprises on the calendar. Even with a holiday shortened week we saw Fannies improve slightly gaining 5/32nds for the week.
This week is a MUCH busier calendar to deal with, and we have something brandy new on Wednesday to look forward to, here is the calendar:
- Monday April 25: New home sales were expected to come in +10% and actually came in over 11%, but this is after a weak winter for home sales and even on the positive news we still saw Fannies gain 7/32nds for the day.
- Tuesday April 26: Fed meeting begins today.
- Tuesday: April Consumer Confidence expected 64.5. The actual number hit the bulls-eye but last months number was revised up a bit. Over all, the Fed and the Market doesn't care much about what the consumer thinks, they are both much more interested in what the consumer is actually doing. As I type we have Fannies trading slightly up.
- Tuesday: Auction number 1 for the week with $35 Billion in 2 year notes. Normally I wouldn't worry much about a 2 yr auction, but this is the first auction after S&P's Credit warning last week.. So this is one to watch, there could be upward pressure put on rates.
- Wednesday, April 27: March Durable Goods expected +2.0%. This estimate is UP significantly from last month, but is only likely to move rates if it comes in stronger than anticipated.
- Wednesday, 12:15pm: Fed meeting ends and the post meeting statement is released. This is 2 hours earlier than usual, 2:15 is the normal time, and at 2:15 today we have something new....
- Wednesday 1pm: Auction #2 with $35 Billion in 5 yr notes. This one can swing either way based on S&P reports from last week, and the post meeting statement coming just before. Tough one to call, but it certainly has the ability to push rates higher.
- Wednesday: 2:15pm: Fed Chair Bernake has a post meeting press conference. This is the new thing to chew on, after 97years this is the first time the Federal Reserve Chairman will have a press conference to tell us what the central banks intentions are moving forward to both boost employment and control inflation. This is likely to be the biggie of the week and the world will stop to listen.
- ThursdayApril 28: Initial jobless claims expected down 13,000. This puts the weekly number at 390,000, a slow recovery for the job market that is more likely to hold rates steady than cause them to drop.
- Thursday: GDP for the first quarter expected +2.0%. This is the first Guesstimate for the quarter, and it is not a likely market mover. The markets are not likely to believe the growth reports are sustainable until the stimulus packages expires in the second quarter.
- Thursday: Last Auction of the week with $29 Billion in 7 yr notes. There is a pretty good chance this will cause some upward pressure on mortgage rates.
- Friday, April 29: march Personal Income expected +0.4% and Spending +0.5%. As reported we will see a stable market, but any stronger and we are likely to see rates climb a bit.
- Friday: Employment Cost Index for the first quarter expected +0.5%. This will win the Snoozer of the week award.
What a difference a week makes, it is a busy calendar that covers everything from normal data, to Fed meeting, to Auctions and even something new to keep it all interesting. By far this weeks biggie is Wednesday's First Time EVER post meeting press conference, all eyes and ears will be on Bernake looking for insight to what is next. The auctions will be interesting here as well. If you remember: Last week S&P put out a credit warning on US Debt, and in the wake of that we have almost $100 Billion of excess Treasury debt to push through this week, that should make things interesting...
On a side note, S&P is one of the rating companies that were paid to Rate 80/20 no-doc loans with low credit scores as Triple A, and then were paid again to downgrade that rating when they did not perform well. Trying to resist the urge here, but ---- DUH! So I personally cant see their ratings as being all that reliable.
This is a busy, and potentially crazy week, Stocks are starting the week strong, Rates are at a near term low, so there is a lot of room for rates to bump up, and almost no room (or reason) for them to drop much lower. Keep that in mind when making any decisions with rates this week.
Have a great week.
Rob
Mortgage Loan Originator/Mortgage Banker
NMLS ID# 248937
www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf
(732)223-1630 x102
Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!
Real Estate Mortgage Network Inc.
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