Maricopa County Arizona Market Report
A few weeks ago, I mentioned that I had realized that each week, when I sit down to comb through our market data (as every data geek must do), I was literally holding my breath! I have been going through this ritual since the third quarter of 2007, anxiously anticipating the day that we would see our market really gaining momentum again, and I believe that the data is telling us that we are VERY close! In fact, this morning, I am not holding my breath at
Last week, I announced my excitement at finally being forced to change the name of “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly,” because there is very little bad or ugly to report. We have been seeing small improvements for some time, but the first quarter of 2011 was extremely strong with significant improvements in supply/inventory, absorption, and decreases in notices of trustee sale.
This week, I decided to take a look at appreciation levels. Many different factors can be used to evaluate the information. For today’s purpose, I am simply trying to illustrate the rate of improvement. I chose to use the annual price per square foot, by city. That leaves a fairly wide margin when you consider the size, geographic location, and many price ranges of a city within the metro area, but again, the intention is to illustrate the significance of improvement and where the market is headed. You will notice that at this time in 2009 and 2010 nearly every city had double digit decreases and Phoenix overall was declining at a rate of -43.9% in 2009. Today, nearly every city is single digit, indicating that the Cromford Report’s prediction of the bottom being behind us could be quite accurate:
|
City |
Appreciation May 2011 |
Appreciation May 2010 |
Appreciation May 2009 |
|
Anthem |
-1.1% |
-11.2% |
-26.1% |
|
Cave Creek |
-0.9% |
-20.0% |
-20.6% |
|
Chandler |
-8.7% |
-13.5% |
-23.2% |
|
Fountain Hills |
-14.4% |
-9.3% |
-26.5% |
|
Gilbert |
-7.7% |
-12.2% |
-23.6% |
|
Glendale |
-6.7% |
-17.7% |
-37.4% |
|
Mesa |
-7.1% |
-15.4% |
-29.4% |
|
Paradise Valley |
-8.4% |
-17.7% |
-21.3% |
|
Peoria |
-7.2% |
-14.8% |
-28.9% |
|
Phoenix |
-3.0 |
-14.5 |
-43.9% |
|
Scottsdale |
-3.9% |
-17.0% |
-22.2% |
|
Surprise |
-4.8% |
-10.9% |
-31.6% |
|
Tempe |
-13.3% |
-17.5% |
-19.2% |
Listings pending sales are still strong at 14,243, which is an increase of 424 pending sales over last week. Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 7,942 properties.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
• There are 20,569 single family detached listings currently in MLS. That is a decrease of 1491 listings from last week, and fifteen consecutive weeks of decrease.
• There are 25,704 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, townhomes, patio homes and lofts
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