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YESTERDAY'S GREAT UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS WERE VERY MISLEADING!

By
Mortgage and Lending with Cherry Creek Mortgage Illinois Residential Mortgage License LMB #0005759 Cherry Creek Mortgage NMLS #: 3001 NMLS ID# 158606

I was stunned and so excited when I heard yesterday's unemployment numbers. 

We're on the mend!  We're on the rebound.  I was anxiously looking at the news in anticipation for last month's unemployment numbers.  If you hadn't heard, the expection was that unemployment numbers would drop by a bit over 100,000.  The number came in at a bit over 200,000.

It sure seemed like great news to me and to our economy.

However, when I turned on CNN and other money news shows, they said that

this number was so misleading.  Why?

Because of just one simple reason....

There are over 2,000,000 americans who are not counted in those numbers because they don't qualify for unemployment anymore and have given up looking for jobs.  According to CNN, the plusses and minuses of unemployment numbers are for those who put in claims and those who are receiving unemployment.....it's not for those who quit receiving unemployment compensation since they no longer qualify to receive it from the fed.  These folks have acutally quit looking.

It's not like the 2,000,000 are new numbers, but according to CNN these numbers continue to steadily rise to the point that they're over 2,000,000, while the "official unemployment numbers", which don't include people who actually are unemployed, has decreased by 200,000.

Magic with numbers and lots and lots of fuzzy math.  Don't buy your Porsche just yet....we may not be done for a bit with the woes we've been witnessing.

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Comments(24)

John McCormack, CRS
Albuquerque Homes Realty - Albuquerque, NM
Honesty, Integrity, Results, Experienced. HIRE Me!

I don't even watch the news or pay attention to the media anymore.  Gloom and doom sells so that's what they're going to push.  UGH....

Jan 07, 2012 03:29 AM
Rebekah Radice
Imagine WOW! Digital Marketing Agency - Burbank, CA
Social Media Marketing, Coaching & Training

Very misleading is exactly right!  It is so frustrating to see the "spin" they attempt to put on these numbers.    It's all just smoke and mirrors these days.

Jan 07, 2012 03:49 AM
Shirley Parks
Sands Realty 210-414-0966 - San Antonio, TX
Broker, 210-414-0966, San Antonio TX Real Estate

Hi Larry, If we put our trust in the media, we would be misinformed.

Jan 07, 2012 04:26 AM
Dick Greenberg
New Paradigm Partners LLC - Fort Collins, CO
Northern Colorado Residential Real Estate

Hi Larry - Too bad that when we do get a bit of good news, it's wrong. A lot of those 200k were seasonal holiday jobs, too. And if you look at true unemployed, plus no longer working, plus part-time, plus underemployed, the rate is over 17%.

Jan 07, 2012 04:49 AM
Ken Brandon
Coldwell Banker Sea Coast Advantage (Jacksonville, NC) - Jacksonville, NC
Camp Lejeune, Jacksonville, NC

Anytime I hear numbers that lead to a prediction of an upswing (certainly with the economy and jobs) I would like to take the person that says this is an indication of a rebound...sit down with him/her and ask if they are willing to bet $50,000 of their money that they feel what they said is correct against my $50,000 that says it isn't happening yet. Wonder how many would take that bet?

Jan 07, 2012 04:59 AM
Lanre-"THE REAL ESTATE FARMER" Folayan
Samson Properties - Bowie, MD
I don't make promises.I deliver results.SOLD HOMES

Larry thanks for being the Active Rain News reporter. I haven't been watching the News lately since I don't see a lot of good things on the News anymore.

Jan 07, 2012 09:15 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

HA!  I put as much stock in numbers coming out of the government today as I do in stats coming from the NAR.

 

Jan 07, 2012 09:51 AM
P.J. Virgilio Jr., Realtor 408-568-6578 Selling homes in the Greater San Jose area and South through San Martin, Gilroy
Keller Williams Realty Silicon Valley - Gilroy, CA
San Juan Bautista and Hollister as well!

Larry,

Statistics; keep your eye on the bouncing ball..... if you get my drift here! lol

Oh yeah I forgot it was an election year.....

Happy New Year!! And all the best for 2012,

 

Jan 07, 2012 10:18 AM
Joe Kenny
Realty Executive Midwest - Darien, IL
Better Than Your Average Joe

What's the old line, "figures lie, liars figure?  What ever they are it's still a good life.

Jan 07, 2012 10:29 AM
David Shamansky
US Mortgages - David Shamansky - Highlands Ranch, CO
Creative, Aggressive & 560 FICO - OK, Colorado Mtg

Great points and one more to add...

It takes 200k just to keep pace with population growth it will take months of 400k to signal solid recovery

Jan 07, 2012 01:51 PM
Steven Cook
No Longer Processing Mortgages. - Tacoma, WA

Larry -- thank you for your note of sanity in a world of misleading numbers.  As was said by someone in the past, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure."

Jan 07, 2012 03:12 PM
Tatyana Makarov
Century 21 All Points Realty - South Windsor, CT
Your Greater Hartford Area Realtor

Hello Larry,

This is unfortunate... I don't know why they make such misleading news.

Tatyana

Jan 08, 2012 12:11 AM
Edward Gilmartin
CRE - Boston, MA

You can count on the numbers being "readjusted" a month or two from now.  Few mention that the Federal government is on a hiring frenzy doling out many jobs at $100,000+ with great benefit packages and even giving raises to current federal employees in this challenging economy where those in the private sector struggle.

Jan 08, 2012 12:51 AM
Mike Carlier
Lakeville, MN
More opinions than you want to hear about.

Larry, thanks for pointing out that things are worse than reported.  I hate when the media reports positive news, and appreciate your straightening things out for us.

Jan 08, 2012 12:57 AM
Emily Medvec
eXp Realty LLC - Santa Fe, NM
Broker | Realtor | Serving Santa Fe & Northern NM

Larry, you are right on target exposing the story behind the numbers the Department of Labor collects to get a handle on unemployment.  Whether the number of unemployment CLAIMS goes UP or DOWN says nothing about actual unemployment. Keep telling the story.

Jan 08, 2012 04:17 PM
Edward Gilmartin
CRE - Boston, MA

The media used to report unemployment numbers a bit differently when George Bush was President of course. They actually gave the real news behind the numbers. Not sure why they report diffently under this administration.

Jan 10, 2012 05:29 AM
C. Lloyd McKenzie
Living Albuquerque - Albuquerque, NM
Living Albuquerque

Good Evening Larry:

Most of these numbers are meant to further some agenda.  I mean, how can they say that those who are discouraged and no longer looking for work aren't unemployed.  At any rate statistics are often misinterpreted by most people so I take them for what they are worth.  Excellent post

Jan 10, 2012 05:17 PM
Pamela Seley
West Coast Realty Division - Murrieta, CA
Residential Real Estate Agent serving SW RivCo CA

Fuzzy math is right. We know why they don't report the underemployed, and no longer qualify for unemployment benefits. They can easily track those numbers, gov't just doesn't want to. Thanks for pointing this out. We've a ways to go. 

Jan 10, 2012 05:32 PM
Dave Woodland
Signet Mortgage - Bend, OR
Your Bend, OR Friendly, Knowledgable Mortgage Professional

Larry - you got it, Jobs are the key! 

Housing is still hurting and the economy won't rise until housing is settled. Housing won't be settled with terrible underemployment. Go Jobs Go!

Here is a February 2012 update on UNemployment and UNDERemployment:  

http://activerain.com/blogsview/2810804/thirteen-definitions-you-need-to-know-when-talking-about-u-s-unemployment-

I hope your St. Charles market is seeing some turnaround. We're not feeling the "dropping" unemployment rate yet here in Oregon.

Feb 06, 2012 08:45 PM
Edward Gilmartin
CRE - Boston, MA

I do recall reading last November that McDonalds was going on a big hiring push...they had lines blocks long applying for jobs....Happy Days are here again..

Feb 06, 2012 11:40 PM