| 01.12.2006 | |
When finalizing the third trimester the economy of the country advanced to an annual rate of the 1,8% that surpassed the considered one of a 1,6%, but was slower than the increase during the second trimester of 2.6%. As of the month of October the personal gains have increased to a rate more aggressive than the personal expenses, moving the level of personal savings to the positive column for the first time from beginnings of the 2005.
This is the warning of president George W. Bush to the democrats who control the new congress. Nevertheless, this increase in the taxes would not cause a great impact in the short term, because the Federal Reserve has the power to trim its interest rate and to resist the effect that these increases have on the consumer and his habits of consumption. A question very difficult to answer is the effect that could have in the long term taxes, which would depend of which imposed they serian increased and like responderia the market on bonds in stock-market of values. Robert Rubin, secretary of the treasure under the administration of president Bill Clinton, affirmed that "an increase in the taxes now would have zero impact in the economy of the country." On the other hand Edward Lazear, director of the economic advice for president George W. Bush, emphasized that "serious a now very risky increase of taxes and would exert a negative pressure on the rate of expansion of the economy of the country during last the two years." Economists in Wall ßstreet maintain a positive perspective before the continuous advance of the economy of the country and write down that, in spite of the recent desaceleramiento, we counted on a solid and stable economy. With a level of unemployment of the 4,4% the Federal Reserve is continued worrying about monitorear the inflation level and proposes that a new rise in the interest cup cannot be discarded. A fiscal policy very controlled, a rise of taxes or a diminution in the consumption rate could diminish inflationary pressures and take to the Federal Reserve to trim the interest rate more early. As far as the process of correction or cooling of the house sector, the same one has the potential to affect of significant form the economy of the country. An example is as it would affect the plans and sales of the three manufacturing ones of more important automobiles in the United States: General Motors, Motor Ford Co and DaimlerChrysler: In states like California, where many people have very high mortgages, with adjustable interest rates. The increases in the interest rate have caused to increases in their payments and diminution of money available for the purchase of automobiles. The sales of automobiles decayed in a 16% in California during the third trimester and the same it is outlined in states like Florida and Arizona, where the sector of the house also experiences a correction. A fast valuation of house during the last years enriched to a consumer who spent east money in the purchase of automobiles, trips, improvements in his house, and other articles of smaller importance. Suppliers of these products will be affected during year 2007 as soon as the real estate sector has become stabilized and its growth I continued to a more moderate rate. Nevertheless, the economy of the country continues its growth and the consumer has favored itself with one recent reduction in the prices of energy. Also expectations for the increase of personal income and, obvious, the opportunities can be affirmed that single an economy of great proportions as ours it can offer. It is possible to write down, like always, that each one of us has the responsibility to focus its site within this economy and to take decisions according to our necessities, income and capacity of payment. During the 2007 we remember the importance of saving. Thank you very much by the privilege to arrive at you every month through this column; them desire a happy season of celebrations and a happy and prosperous year 2007. Claudia Of the Toro is Managing Director of Invest in Miami. Invest in Miami promotes investment in real estate and the opening of new businesses in the City of Miami and Condado Miami-Dade. |
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