| ECONOMISTS SEE BRIGHT LIGHTS FOR HOUSING / GUEST COMMENTARY |
Topic Summary: We have all heard some recent facts here and there that housing is turning around, so let's see what seasoned housing industry editor Steve Cook says. "Housing starts will nearly double and home prices will begin to rise in 2013, with prices increasing significantly in 2014".These rosy predictions come from a new semi-annual survey of 38 of the nation's leading real estate economists and analysts by the Urban Land Institute's Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. The economists foresee broad improvements for the nation's economy, real estate capital markets, real estate fundamentals and the housing industry through 2014, including:
 The Technicals: These strong projections are based on a promising outlook for the overall economy. The survey results show the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise steadily from 2.5 percent this year to 3 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent by 2014; the nation's unemployment rate is expected to fall to 8.0 percent in 2012, 7.5 percent in 2013, and 6.9 percent by 2014; and the number of jobs created is expected to rise from and expected 2 million in 2012 to 2.5 million in 2013 to 2.75 million in 2014. Investor Market Hot Last Year and This Year. For those with cash looking for opportunity in lower home prices, last year was very active. According to RealestateEconomywatch.com, investors bought 1.23 million homes last year, accounting for 27 percent of all existing homes bought in America, the greatest annual market share for investors ever recorded. More details are HERE In Summation: For the housing industry, the survey results suggest that 2012 could mark the beginning of a turnaround - albeit a slow one. Single-family housing starts, which have been near record lows over the past three years, are projected to reach 500,000 in 2012, 660,000 in 2013, and 800,000 in 2014. The overhang of foreclosed properties in markets hit hardest by the housing collapse will continue to affect the housing recovery in those markets. However, in general, improved job prospects and strengthening consumer confidence will likely bring buyers back to the housing market. Steve Cook is a Housing Market editor and commentator and is the moderator of Real Estate Economy Watch |
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