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Debt Ceiling Fears and Rates - Make Sure Your Client's Know

By
Mortgage and Lending with Bay to Bay Lending, LLC NMLS 343112

In early May, several of my preferred agents had deals fall out of their pipelines because their clients were not locked - and rates rocketed.  The sudden spike in rates took many borrower's by surprise and tore right through lender debt ratio cielings.

As I wrote yesterday, as we inch closer to this debt ceiling deadline, rates are going to rise.  As you can see by the chart below, rates flattened since the goverment shutdown.  As Washington toes towards the October 17th deadline to raise the debt ceiling, bond traders will get nervouse and in return sell off and bond yields will rise - and that means rates will rise.  And as you can see from the past trends on the 10 Year Treasury, rates spike fast.

Reccomendation - Encourage your clients to lock in their rate and not flirt with disaster like our elected representatives presently are.

Yes, it is true that we will most likely get a 23rd hour passage of the debt ceiling, but as we have saw in 2011 when the same set of circumstances presented themselves, investors will spook and the markets will react.  Below the chart is a copy of a CNBC article about the debt ceiling 

 

10 YEAR U.S. TREASURY YIELD - Mortgage backed securities and mortgage interest rates and their movements mirror that of the 10 Year U.S. Treasury

 

 

Chart Courtesy of CBS Marketwatch

What a spike in T-bill yields says about default risk

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Published: Monday, 7 Oct 2013 | 11:55 PM ET
By:  | Senior Writer
   
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Traders work the floor on the NYSE during the government shutdown.

Yields on one-month Treasury bills continue to head higher this week, a sign that investors are getting increasingly nervous about the prospect of the U.S. government defaulting on its debt obligations.

The U.S. could start to miss payments on its debt if Congress and the White House fail to reach a deal to lift the $16.7 trillion limit on government borrowing by October 17.

(Read moreUS growth in dangers as shutdown heads into second week)

Analysts say worries about the risk of a delay in being repaid and fears that a divided Congress will struggle to reach a deal on raising the debt ceiling means investors are shunning very short-dated U.S. Treasurys.

The yield on one month Treasury bills has risen to its highest level since late last year, according to Reuters data. It was trading around 0.16 percent on Tuesday, up about 14 basis points from where it was a week ago and above the 0.03 percent yield on three-month bills.

Play Video
 
Shutdown hurting economy?
Former Michigan Governor John Engler discusses the toll the government shutdown is having on the economy, and how it's affecting confidence in government.

"The reason financial markets have been relatively calm is that nobody believes the U.S. will default on its debt," Kelvin Tay, regional CIO for southern Asia-Pacific at UBS Wealth Management, told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box." "But it is interesting that the one-month U.S. Treasury bill has started to react to that and that the yield has shot up quite sharply over the past couple of weeks."

Although a debt default, which would have ripple effects across the global economy, is widely seen as unlikely, a budget impasse in Washington that has shut down the government for the past week has raised concerns about a similar stalemate on the debt ceiling negotiations.

(Read moreMisunderstanding debt ceilings, deficits and defaults)

"We have been following the T-Bill due on October 24 very closely since the shutdown [began]," Evan Lucas, market strategist at trading firm IG, said in a note. "It has once again climbed a further six basis points, which coupled with the move in the VIX, suggests trading over the next week is going to be almost one direction until the impasse is resolved," he said, referring to the VIX index, a barometer of risk appetite.

Uneasy

A debt default could trigger a crisis of confidence in the world's biggest economy, raise the prospect of a credit ratings downgrade and deal a huge blow to the economic recovery that is starting to take hold, analysts say.

"I don't think there will be a default but we are starting to see concerns about [the U.S.] rating and a downgrade of that. This would be an unprecedented event," said Ben Lichtenstein, president at Tradersaudio.com, told CNBC.

(Read moreSo what if there's a default? 5 things to remember)

There were growing signs on Tuesday that the world was starting to get increasingly uneasy about the U.S. debt ceiling debate.

Japan's Finance Minister Taro Aso was quoted as saying he wanted the U.S. to resolve the standoff over the debt ceiling quickly.

Japan is the second largest foreign owner of U.S. Treasurys after China.

The Chinese government meanwhile has warned the U.S. that a shutdown and prospect of a default were threatening the value of its U.S. investments.

Qantas airlines CEO Alan Joyce told CNBC on Tuesday that corporates around the world would be watching developments in the U.S. closely over the next couple of weeks.

"The debt ceiling debate issue is probably more important than the government shutdown and if America defaults on its debt, we would be in uncharted territory and every company would be looking at that," he said. "We are a bit concerned about that at the moment."

—By CNBC.Com's Dhara Ranasinghe; Follow her on Twitter 

 

Chandler Real Estate Liz Harris, MBA
Liz Harris Realty - Chandler, AZ
#ChandlerRealEstateAgent

Thanks for the great information on the interest rates with charts! Lets hope everything works out for the best!!

Oct 08, 2013 01:34 AM
Kathy Stoltman
Ventura, CA
RETIRED

Tony, thanks for this information, it will be valuable for those buyers that need to make a decision about their rate.

Oct 08, 2013 01:51 AM