With the first quarter of 2007 now in the history books those that had been making all sorts of dire predictions of a market crash and bursting bubbles have been proven to be more alarmist than prophets. When good fundamentals are in place investments will rise and fall but seem to always find a level that returns them to normalcy. This is true with the Real Estate market in SW Florida, as well as, all of Florida for that matter. Florida's real estate has some unique features that give it an edge over the real estate in some other areas. Florida enjoys an increasing job market, a lack of undeveloped land, a steady increasing influx of both domestic and international immigration, a baby boom generation looking for a warm area to retire to and a favorable income tax (none). According to Bizjournal, Florida has the lowest unemployment rate and the fastest job growth rate of the country's ten most populous states. Florida also holds 5 of the top ten job markets in the nation with Cape Coral /Fort Myers holding the top spot at 230,000 jobs created. These things combined with the investor speculation driven boom over, puts all of Florida on track for a sound real estate market.
I think the first quarter of 2007 has proven that the above facts are reflected in first quarter results. We have seen steady but not run away progress in the first quarter. Prices are now starting to reflect the amount of inventory and although sales still lag behind the boom times it would be inaccurate to make that comparison. They can be best described as steady but still below normal but moving closer to normal. Until inventories are reduced further sales will not see a more robust market. Activity levels for the first quarter have been significantly higher and the buyers more cautious. With the snowbirds returning to their Northern nest I don't anticipate it will have any impact on sales or the level of activity since a lot of the activity will come from relocations and those looking to retire and take advantage of the prices available in the current market. As sales continue to grow we will probably see a drifting away from the current Buyer's Market with some price increases. Once we have a few months of inventory decline prices will start to creep but I don't think they will move at anything other than a regular rate of appreciation level. I also believe that the Northern Real Estate market has already started to increase, from discussions that I have had with some of the Northern Realtors, which should also fuel an increase in this market.
In summary, I feel that time is ticking away for anyone that wants to take advantage of the current prices and incentives offered by developers and the 2008 season may be too late to reap the benefits of this buyer's market. Interest rates are favorable, prices are right and opportunity doesn't always wait.
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