Understanding Market Statistics

Like all agents,, I keep track of what's going on market-wise in the area I regularly practice. Defining that area can be a bit tricky, however. My working "area" is pretty large -- I actually work throughout southeast King County and well into Pierce County. That's a LOT of statistics.

However, I live in Auburn, and that's my "watch point." But Auburn's a big area too. Lots of neighborhoods. Lots of diversity as far as housing goes. Some areas tend to have less expensive homes, while others currently focus on big, perhaps newer houses.

I always look at the statistics printed in the newspaper and reported by our MLS with a bit of caution. Not that's it's not good stuff. It's just that I know I'll get a call from a client, citing the statistic they read and wondering why their house hasn't sold, or appreciated, or depreciated at the rate posted. But comparing the entire "area" statistic for Auburn, for example, doesn't really help you in your own neighborhood.

Well, let's examine these stats just a bit. Here you'll find information about all houses identified with "Auburn, WA" as their mailing address. That doesn't necessarily mean that these are exactly within the City of Auburn limits. Some areas are unincorporated, but still sport the Auburn address.

Within "Auburn, WA," there are several areas that are somewhat definable. Homes in the Auburn valley sell differently than, say, homes in the Auburn Academy area

Why is that important? Well, suppose you want to buy a home in Lakeland, but your budget is only $200,000. As you can see from these stats, that's just not going to happen. Nothing is currently "Active," in Lakeland under $200,000 that's a detached single family home. Hmmm. But take a look at the Auburn Valley. Not only are there eight active listings under the $200,000 mark, 11 homes in that price range sold in the last six months, eight of which that sold in the last three months. That means that if you find the house you like, you really should move right along and make the offer. Houses in that price range in the Auburn valley area are selling at the rate of 1 per month.

Now, as you take a look at these statistics as a whole, notice that it would take approximately 8 months to sell all of the homes currently on the market. But when focusing on the Auburn East Hill, it would take a full year to clear the inventory. Just for clarification, I typically look at Absorption Rate (how many months of inventory on the market) by comparing the last three months of sales to active listings. This market has changed so rapidly that, in my opinion, the more current and "close to now" the information, the more realistic it is.

Another really great piece of information for you to know, as you both sell or buy in the current market, is how many days homes are actually staying in the market before marked as Pending (DOM). I'll include that data next month.

These statistics will vary again for your personal neighborhood, for homes that look like yours, and depending on the time range used to prepare the information. As you evaluate working with a particular agent to assist you in marketing your home or in purchasing your next home, be sure that your agent is up to date on information such as this. And be sure that your agent is fully prepared to gather this basic information for your unique area. It'll help you understand exactly what's going on!

State of the Market in Auburn, WA
Residential Single Family Homes with Auburn Addresses
	All prices	$400,001 -	$300,001- $400,000	$200,001- $300,000	$0 - $200,000
	Auburn Mailing Address
Current Active Listings	578	178	208	172	20
Sold in last six months	409	62	162	162	22
Sold in last three months	213	32	73	94	14
Months of Current Inventory	8.14	16.69	8.55	5.49	4.29
	Auburn East Hill
	(approx N and E of Green River, inc. Lea Hill, Lake Holm, Moneysmith,Washington Nat'l)
Current Active Listings	160	73	57	22	8
Sold in last six months	83	25	34	21	3
Sold in last three months	40	14	11	12	3
Months of Current Inventory	12.00	15.64	15.55	5.50	8.00
	Auburn Academy/Wabash
	(approx NE of White River up hill towards Muckleshoot & Wabash)
Current Active Listings	7	5	1	0	1
Sold in last six months	10	3	1	4	2
Sold in last three months	5	1	0	4	0
Months of Current Inventory	4.20	15.00	6.00	0.00	3.00
	Auburn West Hill
	(West of Highway 167)
Current Active Listings	136	33	53	48	2
Sold in last six months	86	10	30	40	6
Sold in last three months	47	6	14	24	3
Months of Current Inventory	8.68	16.50	11.36	6.00	2.00
	Auburn Valley
	(approx W of White River to Highway 167)
Current Active Listings	114	11	29	66	8
Sold in last six months	93	3	14	65	11
Sold in last three months	54	1	8	37	8
Months of Current Inventory	6.33	33.00	10.88	5.35	3.00
	Lakeland Area
	(Lakeland Hills -- all)
Current Active Listings	102	24	56	22	0
Sold in last six months	79	12	46	21	0
Sold in last three months	35	6	17	12	0
Months of Current Inventory	8.74	12.00	9.88	5.50	0.00
				Prepared	10/31/08