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Should We Bail?

By
Education & Training with Tech and Social Media Consultant

Mike MuellerThere's a fierce debate going on right now.
It's a national debate but reaches right into my area.
It's going to have an influence on the home loans that happen right here in Contra Costa County.

It involves the collapse of the sub prime lenders.
It involves the coming rise in foreclosures.
It involves politicians.
It involves activist groups.
And most importantly it also involves you!

The debate revolves around whether or not the government should step in to help bail out the homeowners in trouble.

The media is going to grab a hold of this issue and play it for all it's worth. It makes great headline material.

The good guys and bad guys are all clearly identified.

On the White Hat side we have the politicians and community activists. Always looking out for the little guy.
As for the Black Hats...
We have the Sub Prime Lenders and the lying, cheating, stealing Mortgage Brokers to shoot at.

The media is also going to point at all the bad loans that were originated.
Loans like...

  • Interest Only Loans
  • Stated Income Loans
  • No Doc Loans
  • Adjustable Rate Loans
  • Payment Option Arm Loans
As your following the story in the media just remember what my Grandfather used to say,
"That's one side of the coin, now let's flip it over and read the other."
Mike Mueller
What's on the other side?

Here's a couple of snippets:
  • Those five loan types listed are not Sub Prime, they could be, but they could also be for people who have great credit scores. Having one of these loans does not mean you have a sub prime loan. You could have a 30 Year Sub Prime loan as well.
  • The amount of principle not paid down during the first couple of years of an Interest Only Loan is very minimal. As an example a $417,000 loan amount at a 30 yr fixed rate of 6.25% would have a payment of $2,568. Over 3 years that borrower would have paid out $92,488 in payments and paid down his principle just $15,623. The same borrower, same example, Interest Only would have had a monthly payment of $2,172 ($396 less). He would have paid out only $78,187 in payments over the 3 year period ($14,300 less). Since most people keep their loans for 3 to 5 years it's not as critical as the media would suggest it is.
  • Mortgage Lenders, Mortgage Brokers and Loan Originators are not the only ones to blame. There's plenty more responsible parties. (see http://www.patagoniafinance.com/2007/01/conspirator-or-patsy.html)
  • The problem is not that these are bad loans - it is that they were sold to the wrong people for the wrong reasons.

Ultimately, it is the change in payments that will catch the unwary borrower and throw them into the foreclosure pile. That can be in the shape of a short term fixed rate like a 3/1 ARM or it could be the recasting of their Payment Option Arm, where their minimum payments might triple!

So as you discuss the topic with your co-workers around the water cooler, remember this one thing:

They are only hearing one half of the story.

Mike Mueller

Comments(4)

Kelli Fronabarger
Bend River Realty Inc. - Bend, OR
Realtor - Bend Oregon
Very good article and well-written Mike. It will be interesting to see what happens next : )
Apr 16, 2007 04:27 AM
Mike Mueller
Tech and Social Media Consultant - Walnut Creek, CA

Thanks Kelli - There is no doubt that there are plenty of worms out there originating loans.  They may be primarilly to blame.  Even though the media will focus on them and the lenders as the culprits - my position is that there are a few others to point at as well.  Thanks for the kind words!


Apr 16, 2007 04:36 AM
Lisa Hill
Florida Property Experts - Daytona Beach, FL
Daytona Beach Real Estate
So typical of the media to only report a distorted, one-sided view an never even consider that there might be another side. And all the sheep will stupidly follow this lead. It will be interesting to see if they ever report the fact that without these loans, millions of people would have been unable to buy a home at all. And what about the people that are happy with their loans?
Apr 16, 2007 04:36 AM
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time
Very interesting Mike. I do not think the government should step in to help. I do think the individual lenders that wrote these loans may consider helping in some cases. Maybe delay the rate adjustment or consider loan modifications as opposed to foreclosure. But of course what affect would this have to the investors? It really is a complicated matter. I think it would be wise to try and find a common ground for a solution to try and avoid some of the inevitable foreclosures.
Apr 16, 2007 10:14 AM