Marin County, CA. Real Estate Update — March 2009 (Homes For Sale & Price Ranges)

Although February was a short and rainy month, Marin County, CA., still experienced a good number of sales. So far in March 2009. we are seeing increasing inventory similar to "normal" years (I hesitate to call 2009 a "normal" year in light of the current economic situation). Recent gains in the stock market are a welcome change. Interest rates are down to about 5% on conforming loans right now, which is great (that is more than 1 full point lower than this time last year). So, it seems the pump is primed. We'll see if the real estate market responds. 

Obviously, the more stringent underwriting policies of lenders are stifling demand. Although word on the street is that at least one big lender has taken steps to loosen up underwriting practices. It is obvious to everybody who comes into contact with the Marin real estate market that home buyers are continuing to wait for the perceived bottom. This, despite the FACT that interest rates are as low as could be realistically expected and prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods have receded to 2003 or 2004 price levels. As evidenced by frenzied investor activity in Novato, there is definite traction at the low end. And once prices stabilize at the low end, the rippling effect upwards will follow. An interesting note regarding distressed sales (e.g. REO or bank owned homes and short sales): so far in this market cycle these sales have been largely concentrated in San Rafael and Novato. The chart below illustrates the number of, and percentage of, Marin County's 2009 distressed sales. About 50% of the sales in Marin County so far this year have been in San Rafael and Novato. Of these, nearly 50% are distressed sales. In all other cities, the distressed component of the market is 17%. Call me for more information on this important trend.

Single Family Home Sales - January 1, 2009 to March 6, 2009

Source: BAREIS March 8, 2009   The chart below shows a 90-day rolling average of Mill Valley's new listings and absorbed listings (e.g., sales), comparing current numbers with those of last year. Note that the while the numbers for new listings are about the same, the number of absorbed listings is up again in 2009 over 2008. Like I said last month, while the wheels of the real estate market are sticking and squeaking, they have not fallen off - although sellers are advised to wear seat belts. If you would like to review a similar chart for any other town or city in Marin or San Francisco, please let me know.

Inventory is up to 688 single family homes for sale (we had about 583 last month) in the Highway 101 corridor (this number excludes Western Marin inventory and condos). Open houses this past Sunday (a sunny and beautiful afternoon here) were swamped, with 26 groups filing through my listing in South Gate at Hamilton Field (and by the way, if you know anyone interested in an Atrium Eichler on an amazing lot, or a horse lover interested in a rarely available Baywood Canyon Estates home in Fairfax, have them call me). I also spoke with an agent who had 50 groups come through her $2 million plus listing. There is definitely a sense that with a little positive media and some further anecdotal evidence (and actual closings) that buyers are jumping because they believe the bottom is here or near, the market will surge with pent up demand. Certainly, well outfitted homes in great locations are selling promptly.

For a detailed executive summary providing statistics and trends relating to the Marin real estate market (or any specific zip code), please call me any time (I am Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate) at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com . It is always my pleasure to be of service.