Has the San Diego Residential Real Estate Housing Market hit bottom? (Part 2 - more analysis)

Part 1 of Has the San Diego Housing Market hit bottom? showed the median priced home 15 year trend.  It appears as if there is a huge jump in prices in the past several months, since March 2009.  Looking only at the large time series chart, I have to wonder whether or not we are just looking at a seasonal fluctuation or if there really is something there.  I believe these next two charts will confirm that the San Diego residential real estate housing market has hit bottom.

This first chart shows the last two years for each major bedroom / bathroom configuration and also plots a trendline for the data.  Ignoring the specific data and looking only at the trend lines (sorry, couldn't keep the trendlines without the raw data), we can see how the curve appears to have hit a local minimum.

Now, of course, I had to ask the question of whether or not this is just a seasonal fluctuation making it appear that we had hit bottom.  So, we take the same chart and pull it back one year - to end June 2008.  What stands out is that in this lower chart, we see the downward arching curve whereas up top, we can see that it is upward (well at least clearly neutral).

Are we going to fall back and have a dismal second half of the year.  Pulling out my crystal ball... I don't think so (assuming no major national issues). 

For all the BPO people and REO brokers, it looks like its time to stop undercutting the market... the free fall has landed.  (Now, of course, if the theoretical backlog of foreclosures is let loose, then all bets are off.)

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