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Current Market Conditions - July 2, 2007

By
Managing Real Estate Broker with The Lloyd Realty Group DRE# D00610006

The real estate market in Lake Forest continues to be slow. In the last month, total closed sales of only 32 properties is below our long term average by more than 65%. (These are early numbers and may improve a little in the next few days when a few more closings could be reported in the MLS.) Comparing the current sales rate with a current total inventory of 396, we are looking at over 12 month's worth of sales. Here are the numbers split between single family homes and condos:

Current Lake Forest Real Estate Statistics :

Single Family Homes
Status      #Units    Avg List*     $/square ft
=======   ===     ======      =======
Active          208    $761,900         $393
Backup          10    $717,100         $353
Pending         13    $722,286         $381
Closed June*  19    $751,771         $380
* For closings, actual sale price reported

The available homes range in price from $525,000 to a high of $2,095,000 for a lake front "point" home. Whether you compare the active inventory level to the most recent month's closing volume, or to the current escrows (usually representing about 6 weeks of activity) we have well over a 10 month supply of single family homes.

Condos
Status        #Units    $ Avg List*     $/square ft
=======    ===     ========     =======
Active          188     $390,236        $368
Backup          12     $394,900        $365
Pending          5     $364,900        $362
Closed June* 13     $391,866        $363
* For closings, actual sale price reported

The active condos range from a low of $229,000 to a high of $599,000. If sales continue at this pace, it will take between 14 and 16 months to sell all of the currently available condos.

Based on supply versus demand this has become a strong BUYER'S market, with buyers having a significant advantage of many choices and no compelling reason to rush, or consider paying top dollar. In order to stimulate buyer interest and generate offers, serious sellers need to be very agressive in pricing their homes in the low range of the comps! If you don't have a true NEED to sell, this is a good time to take your home off the market and wait it out!

 

Morgan Brown
Inman News - Laguna Beach, CA

Hi Vicki,

We are seeing a similar thing here in Ladera as inventory continues to build.  It is definitely a buyer's market - it will be interesting to see how long this build up continues before prices drop as sellers get anxious about the passing time...

 

Jul 05, 2007 04:34 PM
Kaye Thomas
Real Estate West - Manhattan Beach, CA
e-PRO, Manhattan Beach CA
We are doing a little better then you guys but still much slower then at the first of the year..prices are still holding..
Jul 06, 2007 06:47 PM
Vicki Lloyd
The Lloyd Realty Group - San Diego, CA
(619)452-9798, Real Estate San Diego California

Morgan - Yes, Ladera Ranch has record inventory now, and many of them are short sales.  Combine that with the "lifestyle" transfer fee, and Mello-Roos, it's a tough sell right now!  (PS - I love the community and if I were under 40 and had little ones in my house, it would be my choice of where to live!)

Kaye - I think the beach areas will always do better than the inland areas for maintaining values, even when the overall market slows.  Manhattan Beach is a beautiful area, and well-located for working or playing in LA. 

Jul 07, 2007 05:50 AM