DAILY MORTGAGE RATE LOCK ADVICE
June 17, 2010, 9:23 PT
Lock Advice is Updated Several Times Daily
Today's Short Term Mortgage Rate lock Advice: FLOAT
MBS prices are up 14/32.
MBS Prices move opposite of mortgage rates.
Long Term Mortgage Rate Lock or Float Advice: LOCK
The MBS Market attempted to hammer through a rock solid price resistance level for the fourth time since 2008 and it looks like they have, once again, been turned back.
- National Average Fixed Rate Mortgage
Unchanged at 4.79% on Jun.16 - MBS Yields Opened at 4.403% Up 4.403%.
- 10 Year Treasury Currently 3.270% Down -0.05%
- DJI Stocks $10,361.09, Down -48.37, -0.46%
- European and Asian Markets Up 0.096%
- Nymex Crude Oil Currently $77.09 Down $0.58
MORTGAGE MARKET NEWS IN REVIEW
Thursday, June 17
CPI inflation came in close to expectations with almost no effect on mortgage rates..
Wednesday, June 16
- Lots of news this morning and, so far, it has not significantly impacted mortgage rates.
- May PPI fell -0.3% from April due to a decline in energy prices
- PPI was 5.3% higher than one year ago
- Core PPI was 1.3% higher than one year ago.
- May Housing Starts fell 10% to 593K.
- Building Permits declined 6% to 574K, the lowest level in a year
- The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 7%, while the refinancing
- activity index increased by 21%
Tuesday, June 15
The Empire State index came in close to expectations
Friday, June 11
MBS prices jumped when Retail Sales came in lower than expected, lowering mortgage rates slightly at opening.
Thursday, June 10
Jobless claims came in at near expectations.
MBS prices dropped 25/32 causing several lenders to increase their mortgage rates mid day.
Friday, June 4
May Employment report showed a 431K job increase, which was lower than expected
Thursday, June 3
Lots of news that had no real effect on mortgage rates:
Jobless Claims came in close to expectations.
First quarter productivity was revised lower to 2.8% from 3.6%
The Fed's Lockhart said the Fed may have to begin hiking rates even while unemployment is considerably higher than before the recession.
Factory Orders were 1.2, close to expectations
ISM Services Index, 55.4 as predicted
Wednesday, June 2
April Pending Home Sales rose 6%, which was higher than expected.
Tuesday, June 1
Construction spending came in stronger than expected
Friday, May 28
Today's economic data was close to expectations and had little impact on mortgage rates today.
The Chicago PMI manufacturing index fell to 59.7.
April Personal Income rose 0.4%.
The Core PCE price index, the Fed's inflation measure, increased at a low 1.2% annual rate.
Thursday, May 27
Today's mortgage rates are being hammered by the strong stock market. Jobless Claims and GDP came in close to expectations and had little impact.
Wednesday, May 26
Durable Orders exceeded the consensus.
April New Home Sales rose to an annual rate of 504K units, way above the consensus forecast of 425K, and the highest level since May 2008.
Tuesday, May 25
Tensions between North and South Korea have caused money to fly to safety. from stocks to bonds which helps mortgage rates.
Consumer Confidence came in at 63.3, above the consensus forecast of 58.5 which helped Stocks recover from down almost 300 earlier in the day.
Monday, May 24
Existing Home Sales were 5.77M, higher than the consensus of 5.65M. The news did not effect mortgage rates.
Friday, May 21
No economic reports are scheduled today so mortgage rates will be primarily driven by the stock market. DJI has recovered from down 148.73 shortly after the opening bell.
Thursday, May 20
Jobless claims higher than expected. Stock market weakness is pushing Mortgage Rates down this morning.
Oil prices fell as low as $65 per barrel, reaching the lowest level since July 2009.
Wednesday, May 19
CPI inflation was very close to expectations at low levels.
Tuesday, May 18
Mixed Producer Price Index (PPI) and slightly increased Housing Starts which initially had little effect on MBS. Later, the stock market turned negative, which lifted MBS markets and lowered rates.
Monday, May 17,
The Empire State index fell short of the consensus forecast
Friday, May 14
Retail Sales came in close to expectations
Thursday, May 13
Weekly Jobless Claims at 444K, close to the consensus forecast of 440K.
Demand was close to average for the 30-yr auction.
Wednesday, May 12
The March Trade Deficit rose to $40.4 billion, which was a little higher than the consensus forecast.
Tuesday, May 11
Demand was stronger than average for the 3-yr auction,
Monday, May 10
The big news effecting stocks this morning is that the European Union will make available $1 trillion to support Greece and other European Union members which are experiencing economic troubles.
Friday, May 7
The economy added 290K jobs, above the consensus of 190K, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7%.
Thursday, May 6
This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 444K, close to the consensus forecast of 440K.
Wednesday, May 5 - Bad news for EU is good news for US Mortgage Rates.
Early this morning the ADP jobs estimate for April was expected at +30K, as reported +32K; March was revised by ADP from -23K to +19K. A good report on jobs but there was no reaction to it in markets that are completely consumed with the unraveling of events in Europe and concerns that the EU may be permanently altered as the crisis of debt defaults has not been contained. All focus now is on safety to US treasuries and fears of a stock market decline. US stock markets will suffer as the euro currency falls against the dollar, investors will be leery of buying US equities as the dollar strengthening takes away buying from European and foreign investors in general.
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