Introducing an easy-to-follow inside look at mortgage rate activity, featuring charts, rate sheets, market commentary, and even video recordings all in one daily morning blog! Whether you're a newbee, market analyst (or somewhere in between), keep yourself informed of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why). Subscribe to this free daily update by clicking the button on the right hand side of this page.
While basic understanding of the "book smarts" within the mortgage industry will help you understand specific terminology, loan programs, and features, there is so much more you will need to know in order to make an informed financial decision.
My approach to providing education strives to further your understanding beyond the "book smarts" of the mortgage industry, and learn the valuable "street smarts" that will help you achieve the best possible results, while avoiding the most common pitfalls that non-informed Borrowers and Real Estate Professionals have experienced.
The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):
The following information is current as of Tuesday 2-1-2011. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.
The market closed Friday with a WORSENING to pricing (as indicated by the red arrow pointing downward). Note that any movement that exceeds 25 basis points is significant (and will typically warrant a pricing adjustment by most Lenders). Monday's WORSENING was 9 basis points.
The following chart shows the market activity thus far today (hint: upward activity is good, downward activity is bad):
The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):
The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:
Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications)
Market Commentary
Analyst: Neil Trenerry
FNMA 30-YR 4.0%
Previous close 99.125
Opened Down 0.25bp @ 98.875
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.3760 Up 0.0066
USD / JPY 81.6003 Down 0.4445
GBP / USD 1.6093 Up 0.0079
OIL 91.55 Down 0.64
Gold 1,339.30 Up 4.80
Key Economic News:
ISM manufacturing, construction outlays, vehicle sales, and the weekly confidence survey...
10:00: ISM manufacturing index for Jan...upside risk. This should be a solid report om momentum in the US manufacturing sector.
Median forecast (of 78): 58, ranging from 556 to 59.5; last 58.5 (revised from 57.0).
10:00: Construction outlays for Dec...which way? Most forecasters anticipate a small increase in outlays, but there are some expectations of significant declines.
Median forecast (of 49): +0.1%, ranging from -1.3% to +0.5%; last +0.4%.
Late morning/early afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales for Jan...hurt by poor weather and limited supply? Anecodotal reports from the manufacturers suggest a modest hit to sales from poor weather and tight inventories for popular models, but others see a firmer outcome.
For total sales: median forecast (of 38): 12.6mm, ranging from 11.8mm to 12.9mm; last 12.53mm.
For domestic: median forecast (of 17): 9.42mm, ranging from 9.2mm to 9.7mm; last 9.46mm.
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index...faint signal through a lot of noise. If you squint real hard, this index exhibits a very small upward trend from early 2008 on, but it has backed off a 2 1/2 year high over the past two weeks.
Advice:
With the news out of Egypt, it looks like Friday will be a big day. The weaker dollar could help the MBS market, unless we see some crazy numbers out of vehicle sales. I see the market trading around the 99.000 mark.
I don't believe this is a time to gamble. I would lock today.
My position on MBS stays neutral today.
Analyst #2 (Dan Rawitch)
Here is the link to our daily update
http://ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html
Good news on the Manufacturing front and a quieter Egypt is feeding the MIGHTY bull. As the bull runs, bonds falter. We have now been locked in a sideways pattern since early December and it will take a huge surprise to bust us out. Will unemployment do it? Will something nasty abroad or in Egypt do it? Something will and if we break to the low side, I again caution of panic selling. The same is true of the high side. Wish I could predict the future for you. For now, all i can say is that if we again hold 98.50, you should consider floating back to the top. BUT...expect the unexpected!
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