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The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):
The following information is current as of Tuesday 5-3-2011 and will help you understand todays best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.
The market closed Monday with a NEUTRAL RESULT to pricing (and will typically warrant a pricing adjustment by most Lenders). Monday's NEUTRAL RESULT resulted in a change of 0 basis points (bps).
The following chart shows the market activity thus far today (hint: upward activity is good, downward activity is bad):
The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):
The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:
Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.
Market Commentary
Analyst #1 (Neil Trenerry):
FNMA 30Yr 4.5%
Previous close 102.844
Opened Up 0.09bp @ 102.938
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.4821 Down 0.0010
USD / JPY 80.7290 Down 0.4960
GBP / USD 1.6495 Down 0.1060
Oil 112.01 Down 1.48
Gold 1,542.80 Down 14.30
Key Economic News:
10:00: Factory orders for March: Large increase. The substantial increase in durable goods orders in March impllies a likely gain in overall factory orders. In addition, higher oil prices may lift the nominal value of petroleum shipments. Manufacturing inventory data included in the report could lead to revisions to Q1 GDP.
Median ofrecast (of 66): +2.0%; last -0.1%.
Afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales for April: Nearly unchanged. Anecdotel reports from the manufacturers suggest overall vehicle slaes were about unchanged in April.
For total sales: median forecast (of 42): 13.0mm; last 13.1mm.
For domestic: median forecast (of 18): 9.9mm; last 9.9mm.
Advice:
With factory orders expected to improve, I would expect the market to slip today.
My position on MBS stays short today.
Analyst #2 (Dan Rawitch):
Here is the link to our daily video
http://ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html
Well...as the Bin Laden death celebrations (does that seem strange to anyone else?) fade and traders realize that is not the best reason for a stock market rally, we may see interest move back toward less risky trades.
Yesterdays VIX certainly was signaling a move toward volitility. I expect faily sideways and choppy trade until we start seeing some employment reports. Those begin tomorrow.
We are still positioned for a pretty big move up, but need to stay above 102.80 and close above 103 in the next 3 trading sessions. If that does not happen...we could get the oposite. How is that for hedging my position? For what it is worth, I am bullish on bonds but a great employment report can change all that. My bullishness is more technical at the moment.
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