I've been doing some ActiveRain housekeeping today and I ran across a comment from Bryan Brady posted exactly a year ago.  My post was about the high rate of contracts falling through a year ago. 

Bryant's comment was eerily prescient. 

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Lenn,

We agree on this subject that all are getting their just due,

Roberta Murphy offers some interesting thoughts * * *.

I cautioned of the bloodbath [next year here].  I'm afarid that the fallout will be more than just a "blip" though.  I'd appreciate your thoughts.  Many homeowners got into these loans without income verification and extracted equity to pay their bills within the last two years.

The result could be extraordinarily tightened lending guidelines.  A loss in liquidity is never a good thing for real estate markets

Posted by Brian Brady on 10/14/2006

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"The more things change, the more they stay the same."

 

22 Comments on LOOKING BACK AT OUR PREDICTIONS FROM A YEAR AGO

OCT
13
2007
613,590 Points 95 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
Maybe Brians a prophet. Ouch almost exactly a year ago.
3:39pm • #1
894,590 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
Missy.  I was looking at some of my posts from a year ago and ran across that comment.  Interesting.
3:49pm • #2
188,175 Points 28 Featured Posts Outside Blog
The handwriting has been on the wall for quite some time, makes it even more sad that the government is just now worried about the situation.
3:57pm • #3
268,645 Points 44 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Wow..right on the mark. 

I'd be more scared if Carnacs predictions came true :-)
3:59pm • #4
894,590 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Leigh.  It surely has.  Although I didn't see the mortgage meltdown because I don't often deal with subprime borrowers.  The only one I've sold personally in the past five years, was foreclosed in a year.  She should never have been given a loan.  I had about 15 agents at the time and none of them were doing subprime.  A lot of 100% loans but they're still good.

Kris.  I thought it worthy of noticing again.  Brian was quite right.

 
4:31pm • #5
195,707 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Lenn, Let's see what Bryan has to say for next year, or has he already? Where is Bryan?
4:48pm • #6
102,761 Points 10 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
I think the writing was on the wall from the moment these kinds of loans were being put together. I found myself having to talk my clients of getting some of these subprime products.
4:54pm • #7
894,590 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Mana.  That is a good question.  What does the very prescient Brian Brady see for a year ago.  Maybe he'll drop by and read this and comment.  Or, perhaps he'll post his "Predictions for 2008".

Robert.  Good for you.  As I said above.  I only had one buyer that had to have a subprime to buy.  I would have sent her away, but she was referred to me by my attorney and she had a big settlement coming.  Unfortunately, that didn't teach her how to make a mortgage settlement.  She got the money and still wouldn't pay and was foreclosed in a year.

5:33pm • #8
261,324 Points 30 Featured Posts Outside Blog
eerie....but not really if you are good at what you do.  It was pretty obvious that a lot of people were buying homes, and also refinancing their equity, and had no thought for the long term.  Our society, living on credit, and no savings, was in for trouble.....and here it is :) :)
6:39pm • #9
238,941 Points 56 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Lenn,it looks as though Brian was right on. Perhaps, he can now be the Mortgage Carnac and let us all in on the next scenario.
6:43pm • #10
577,829 Points 52 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Crazy.  I really love Brian's writing and comments.  He is pretty dead on and I have talked in length about rebound times, etc.  He has really enlightened me to what the next couple of years will hold here.
10:03pm • #11
OCT
14
2007
304,591 Points 15 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Hi Lenn,
Brain is a seer, now will he please look into his crystal ball and tell us what and when will happen in the next year? 
7:37am • #12
894,590 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Kathy.  Seeing was not too hard around here when prices got to the point when a family couldn't buy a home for under $500K.  That was it.  They put their foot down.  I could see the market dying but didn't have the insight into the mortgage mess that Brian does.

Gena.  Not a  mortgage Carnac.  I believe that a Mortgage Merlin is more in order.  Hey, that's an idea for a post.  Mmmmmmm.

Renee.  Yep.  He knows his business.  No question.

Cynthia.  Would it make any difference in what we do??   I know that the market changes caused me to completely change my brokerage model.  It's hard but we do have to watch the market.
9:16am • #13
238,941 Points 56 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Lenn, the only problem with that is that a canned ghost writer will be the one we will need to hear from...too bad, so sad!
9:21am • #14
467,700 Points 51 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Lenn - I am hoping Brian can look into his crystal ball right now and tell us the market will improve soon! Perceptions need to change before this takes place. Real Estate is too media driven right now.
9:38am • #15
894,590 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Gena.  In reality, I don't believe that ghost written articles will play a large part in blogging.  Not because the articles wouldn't serve the purpose, but because most real estate practitioners wouldn't pay for the service.  Brian is different.  He's feeding the Interent synergy.  He knows exactly what he's doing.

Bill.  Be careful what you ask for.
9:55am • #16
141,800 Points 46 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Lenn: Brian has a good handle on the market and lending consequences. Our San Diego market was pretty bleak a year ago and  improvements have occurred in certain markets only because sellers have adjusted their expectations or pulled their homes off the market. As in most areas, communities fare worst in those Phase 1, II, III subdivisions (and surrounding areas) where builders and lenders slid so many in on trappy loans.

Good catch, Lenn! That is the beauty of archiving posts and comments. Historians might have fun with this some day.
10:12am • #17
894,590 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Thanks Roberta.  I have been reviewing some of my earlier posts and it's been very interesting.  Our market has suffered from agents buying listings and keeping prices up.  I can't figure it.  An overpriced listing will just eat you alive.  They don't sell. 

Buyers here have just simply put their foot down.  They won't buy and live in the areas where they can qualify and they can't qualify for what their friends and co-workers purchased a mere 4-5 years ago.

Our market is just plain out of whack. 

2:54pm • #18
103,230 Points 20 Featured Posts
We all know Brian   is one smart cookie.. it also seems as if he owns  one of the few crystal balls that is in good working condition..
4:06pm • #19
894,590 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
Kaye.  Right you are.  He knows the market and follows it closely for trends.
4:26pm • #20
165,751 Points 4 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Lenn,

Thanks for sharing this information.  Brian has really done a great job here on Active Rain and his insight has been valuable to many.

Lucky :)
9:59pm • #21
NOV
15
2007
265,730 Points 102 Featured Posts Outside Blog
I just caught this article, Lenn.  I hope this helps.
1:06am • #22

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