The Pending Price Index is a metric unique to Arizona Regional MLS which uses pending data in the MLS system to forecast future pricing. In the past ARMLS tracked this metric sixty and ninety days into the future. However, the volatility of short sales, characterized by prolonged and unpredictable changes in terms and closing dates, and their disproportionate percentage in the sixty to ninety day pending pool, diminished the reliability as PPI moved into further out into the future. STAT may or may not resume forecasting out sixty or ninety days, once the predictions become more reliable.
Last month the thirty day average price prediction of $180,000 was 5.11% below the actual average of $189,200. April’s prediction of the median sales price of $133,000 missed the mark by 3.76%, compared to the actual median sales price of $138,000.
The current PPI predicts that the May median sales price will rise to $139,900 and the average to remain steady at $189,000.
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