The inventory of Active listings in Oceanside's Rancho Del Oro tract home community of about 1700 homes currently sits at about 48 single family detached homes. In August of 2007, that number was about 80 and for Jan-May 2007 it stood at about 55 homes, when sales were brisk with prices steady. This community is considered mid-priced within Oceanside and gives a good indication of the overall health of the market.
Many sellers have taken their homes off of the market due to the holiday season. However, if those sellers decide to wait out this market, or have turned their homes into rental properties, this lower inventory level can help stop the freefall of prices we saw August to November.
For much of Oceanside, the bank owned properties(REO) are controlling the market. Short sale listings are prevalent, however, most do not result in actual sales.
My feeling is the lower priced Oceanside homes(under $450,000) may see another 10% price drop through 2008. As the price of the home gets higher, the drop in value becomes less due to less volume of distressed property sales. Arrowood may still have price pressure due to aggressive tactics from the new home builders still present there.
I will keep a close watch on market activity over the next few months to gauge whether we may have hit bottom yet. If you are also interested in keeping tabs for yourself or potential buyers, just let me know, and I will put you on my market analysis distribution list.
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