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Mortgage Rate Update 2-14-14: Trends & Projections

By
Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

This morning, January Industrial Production declined 0.3% from December, below the consensus for an INCREASE of 0.3%. Bad weather was again cited as a significant influence on the results. Import Prices & Consumer Sentiment came in close to expectations. There was little immediate reaction to the data, though Mortgage Backed Securities have trended lowere this morning.

Pricing has opened 0.125 WORSE to the points/credits associated with each interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Friday 2-14-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Thursday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Thursday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 6 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Home Loan Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

Home Loan Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

 Home Loan Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Home Loan Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Home Loan Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA
Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.1719 Bid 96.50000
Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.1406 Bid 100.78125
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.0625 Bid 104.29688

 

Treasury
UST 5 YR Chg -0.0313 Bid 99.94531 Yield 1.5130
UST 10 YR Chg -0.0313 Bid 100.12500 Yield 2.7360
UST 30 YR Chg -2.4219 Bid 98.76563 Yield 3.6930

 

Currency
Euro Bid 1.3694 Chg 0.0017
Pound Bid 1.6715 Chg 0.0058
Yen Bid 101.750 Chg -0.370
Light Crude
Last 99.70

 

Key Economic Data:
Import prices for Jan: Actual 0.1%, Consensus -0.1%, Last 0.0%.
Export prices for Jan: Actual 0.2%, Consensus 0.0%, Last 0.4%.
Industrial output for Jan: Actual -0.3%, Consensus 0.3%, Last 0.3%.
Capacity Utilization for Jan: Actual 78.5%, Consensus 79.3%, Last 79.2%.
Mauf output for Jan: Actual -0.8%, Consensus 0.1%, Last 0.4%.
6:55: Univ of Michigan for Feb
Sentiment: Consensus 80.6, Last 81.2.
Conditions: Consensus 95.9, Last 96.8.
Expectations: Consensus 71.6, Last 71.2.
1yr Inflation: Last 3.1%.
5yr Inflation: Last 2.9%.
7:30: ECRI weekly index: Last 133.2.

 

Advice:
Treasury market volatility fell to the lowest level in almost nine months after the U.S. Congress approved a 13-month suspension in the federal borrowing limit. Volatility in U.S. government securities measured by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index dropped to 58.09 yesterday, the lowest level since May 16. The decline was also fueled by data yesterday showing retail sales fell and jobless claims rose. A harsh winter may make it difficult for Federal Reserve policy makers to gauge if signs of economic weakness can be attributed to the weather or if growth is slowing. Weak data drives us into the ground in terms of volatility, said Charles Comiskey, head of Treasury trading at Bank of Nova Scotia in New York, one of 22 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. Were priced for that. The 10-year yield rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.75 percent at 8:42 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the benchmark 2.75 percent note maturing in February 2024 declined 3/32, or 94 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 100 1/32. It was headed for a second five-day loss, the first back-to-back weekly declines this year. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index gained 1.6 percent this year. It has fallen 0.1 percent this week, matching the decline in the previous period. A custom Bloomberg gauge tracking 20 developing-nation currencies moved in the opposite direction, gaining 0.8 percent this week

 

My position on MBS
Short term Neutral.
Long term Neutral.

 

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

Michigan Sentiment came in a bit better than expected and Industrial production missed. I still expect to trade in a range of 104.00 to 104.50. I'd still be mindful that we may have formed a new downward channel which could lead us to our previous lows. Much more detail about that in the video.

 

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) and Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.ApprovingSD.com or more information.

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