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Mortgage Rate Update 8-13-14: Trends & Projections

By Jason E. Gordon

Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

August 13, 2014 03:52 AM

Weaker than expected economic data has lifted Mortgage Backed Securities this morning. July Retail Sales were flat from June, below the consensus for an increase of 0.2%. Retail Sales ex-autos also fell short of expectations.

Compared to yesterday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.125 -% - 0.250% IMPROVEMENT for the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Wednesday 8-13-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Tuesday with a WORSENING to pricing. Tuesday's WORSENING netted a change of 12 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Best Mortgage Rates In San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

Best Mortgage Rates In San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Best Mortgage Rates In San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA - Month Aug

Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.2031 Bid 98.67188

Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.2031 Bid 102.43750

Cpn 4.0 Chg 0.1719 Bid 105.57813

Treasury

UST 5 YR Chg 0.1172 Bid 100.14844 Yield 1.5940

UST 10 YR Chg 0.1875 Bid 100.62500 Yield 2.4270

UST 30 YR Chg 0.2969 Bid 102.18750 Yield 3.2590

Currency

Euro Bid 1.3390 Chg 0.0021

Pound Bid 1.6715 Chg -0.0098

Yen Bid 102.320 Chg 0.060

Light Crude

Last 97.33

Key Economic Data:

Mortgage Market

Index: Actual 337.7, Last 347.0.

Purchase: Actual 164.8, Last 166.5.

Refinance: Actual 1322.2, Last 1377.0.

30-Yr rate: Actual 4.35%, last 4.35%.

Retail Sales for Jul

Index: Actual 0.0%, Consensus 0.2%, Last 0.2%.

Ex-Autos: Actual 0.1%, Consensus 0.4%, Last 0.4%.

Ex Gas/Autos: Actual 0.1%, Last 0.4%.

Control: Actual 0.1%, Consensus 0.4%, Last 0.6%.

7:00: Business Inventories for Jun: Consensus 0.4%, Last 0.5%.

Advice:

Treasuries rose, pushing 10-year note yields toward the lowest in more than a year, as a report showing U.S. retail sales were little changed in July added to signs the economic recovery is uneven. Benchmark 10-year notes were at the cheapest level in a week against their Group of Seven peers before the U.S. auctions $24 billion of the securities today. The extra yield the notes offer over their G-7 counterparts was 72 basis points, the most since Aug. 4, compared with as little as 37 basis points in February. Treasuries have advanced this month as tensions in Ukraine, Iraq and Gaza boosted demand for safer assets. The report is disappointing, said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist in New York at Royal Bank of Canadas RBC Capital Markets unit, one of 22 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. Youre looking at a pretty sizable let-down following second-quarter growth numbers. This number suggests we have a lot of ground to make up. The U.S. 10-year yield fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.44 percent at 8:42 a.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data, after rising earlier to 2.47 percent. The slowdown in retail purchases followed a 0.2 percent advance in June, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.2 percent gain. Excluding cars, sales rose 0.1 percent.

My position on MBS:

Short term changes to Long.

Long term stays Short.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.

Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.

Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out

Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

Today retail sales missed expections. This combined with GEO political concerns...on top of declining Mortgage applications, provides more fuel for the bond rally. I believe we will test the top again, soon. This next test could provide a breakout, given our current environment. Remember...breakouts are the exception and not the norm...so be careful.

http://www.ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

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