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Another Wave of Short Sales on the Horizon?

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Steele Group Realty DRE# 01474222

 

According to Home.com’s April Local Market Index, 46% of the top U.S. markets have achieved full pricing recovery.  This would seem to indicate that short sales caused by negative equity are on the down-turn.  However, there are some new factors that might contribute to a large increase in the numbers of homeowners seeking short sales.

 

Between 2005 and 2008 RealtyTrac has estimated that there were 3,262,036 HELOCs originated with an estimated balance of $158 billion that are still open loans.  Those equity lines are set to re-set between 2015 and 2018, many on properties that are still underwater.  The problem however isn’t just possible negative equity; it’s dealing with potentially higher payments. 

 

The first 10 years of a HELOC are what’s known at the draw period when the borrower can draw from the line of credit, and repay as needed.  The payments during this period are interest only.  However at 10 years, the line of credit is no longer available and the outstanding balance must start to be repaid as an amortized loan, usually over 20 years.

 

So for example, if a homeowner has an equity line with a balance of $125,000 at 3.4% their interest-only payment would be $354.  When that loan re-sets and the homeowner is paying principal and interest payment more than doubles to $718.54.  This could pose a real problem for households where post-recession income gains have been limited.

 

Need to discuss a possible short sale?  I have seven years of experience successfully negotiating short sales throughout San Diego County.

 

Posted by

Your Personal San Diego County Real Estate Consultant

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http://insidesandiegoshortsales.com

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Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

Luckily, our market in Oklahoma City was not greatly affected in 2007-2008 so we are not seeing a rise again. I do think you are correct in assuming that we will see an increase as we deal with the tail end of the breather on a mirror and get any loan you want era.

Jun 24, 2015 12:20 PM
Myrl Jeffcoat
Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Realtor - Retired

Prices here in Sacramento are much improved from 2007-2008, but we haven't reached full recovery.  I think lending that has been done in recent years hasn't been as wreckless as it was leading up to housing meltdown.  Therefore, I don't foresee any major danger of encroaching into "short-sale" territory.  However, each area of the country has it's own unique circumstances.

Jun 24, 2015 02:00 PM
Chris Ann Cleland
Long and Foster Real Estate - Gainesville, VA
Associate Broker, Bristow, VA

I'm seeing an uptick in Short Sales in Bristow and Gainesville, VA.  A lot of folks got into newly built homes from 2005-2007 on 10 year adjustable rate, interest only arms.  They are coming due.

Jun 25, 2015 11:20 AM
Marti Steele Kilby, CRS
Steele Group Realty - La Mesa, CA
Broker/Owner, San Diego, CA

Joe and Meryl,  I'm happy to hear that you don't feel your markets aren't likely to be heavily affected.

 

Chris Ann, I think your market is likely to be impacted as is our San Diego market.

Jun 26, 2015 12:20 AM
Patricia Kennedy
RLAH@properties - Washington, DC
Home in the Capital

Marti, one of my neighbors had a HELOC shock a couple of years ago.  She was really lucky had lots of equity in the house and was able to refinance, but her payment would have doubled.  And what amazed me is that she's a really smart woman who had no idea how this loan actually worked! 

Jul 07, 2015 12:25 PM