Since the mortgage catastrophe one year ago came to light the media has been reporting month over 
month data revealing falling prices and sales. Seasonal adjustments were impossible since that would necessitate comparing data to the same period a year prior—hardly comparing apples to apples since July of 2007 we’ve been in a downward housing cycle. Obviously the housing market for sellers is not as good as it was before the housing woes were revealed in July of 2007, but what since then? How far has the market dropped?
Finally we can compare this July’s housing performance to the same market cycle as last year—in a downturn—to see the effects it has had on the mid-peninsula market.
Here are the statistics for Belmont, California comparing June 2008 to July 2008 and year over year to July 2007.
Jun-08 |
Jul-08 |
Jul-07 |
Δ June |
% Δ June |
Δ from July 07 |
% Δ July 2007 | |
# of Sales |
20 |
25 |
20 |
+5 |
25.0% |
+5 |
25.0% |
Over $ 1 mil |
6 |
5 |
6 |
-1 |
-1 |
||
Under 1 Mil |
14 |
20 |
14 |
+6 |
+6 |
||
Sold over asking |
4 |
6 |
11 |
+2 |
-5 |
||
Sold at Asking |
3 |
4 |
3 |
+1 |
+1 |
||
Sold Under Asking |
13 |
15 |
6 |
+2 |
+9 |
||
% Seller Received |
99.00% |
98.50% |
102.00% |
-0.5% |
-3.5% | ||
Days on Market |
34.8 |
18.6 |
25.8 |
-16 |
-7 |
↑Sales have rebounded nicely and are only two sales shy of the pace in July of 2005—a peak year for home sales.
↔Seller’s are still receiving close to their asking price, though it has tapered off from the days of 100%+ proceeds.
↑The month’s supply of homes is at only 1.6 (driven by an increase in sales). That’s teetering on the edge of a Seller’s market territory.
↑The time it takes to sell a home has dropped considerably.
LEGEND:
↔Unchanged
↑Positive market force
↓Negative market force
↗↙Probable trend upward or downward
The median price is a bit harder to track but we have an interesting piece on how we adjust for larger or smaller homes selling here.
Median Price Belmont |
Jun-08 |
Jul-08 |
Jul-07 |
$ Δ over June |
% Δ June |
$ Δ over July 2007 |
% Δ July 2007 |
Median Price |
$894,250 |
$898,888 |
$929,000 |
$4,638 |
0.5% |
-$30,112 |
-3.2% |
Sq. Ft. (median) |
1610 |
1490 |
1805 |
-$120 |
-7.5% |
-$315 |
-17.5% |
$ per Sq. Ft. (median) |
555.4348 |
603.28054 |
514.6814 |
$48 |
8.6% |
$89 |
17.2% |
Adjusted Median Price |
$994,613 |
$1,061,013 |
$929,000 |
$66,400 |
6.7% |
$132,013 |
14.2% |
Note that although the median price in July of 2007 was higher, so was the size of home sold. We adjust for this difference to help account for larger or smaller homes selling in a particular month. Although this is not a perfect method for determining median home values, it does reveal a noticeable trend in smaller homes selling. That usually means more first-time buyers are entering the market.
Our assessment is clearly the sky is not falling in as big of pieces as you may have been led to believe.
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