Orange County Housing Markets Predicted Jump at 2012 and Beyond

 

UCLA Anderson School of Business Forecast predicts that the Orange County housing markets will have home sold price up by 2012, and home sales volume will rebound by 43% over the next two years.

We don't know what algorithms they used for this but hope they're right about predictions for the Orange County economy and housing markets.

Economists from UCLA  Anderson forecasted the OC home selling prices to go up above $500,000 in 2012, that sold prices will go up from 6.6% to 9.3% a year through 2015, which would be price growth of 49% during the next six years.

As for home sales volume, UCLA Anderson predicts transactions up 27.5% in 2011 and continuing to climb through 2014, almost reaching levels of boom days during 2005.

Housing markets at the OC will be slow for 2010 and next year 2011, then demand will increase, with rising affordability, and decreasing market fear, and sales will go up.

UCLA forecasters don't expect another recession.  However, they believe the recovery will be slow and that Orange County housing market recovery is "fragile."   The unknown would be possible change for negative if lender shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages gets moved quickly through foreclosure.  If that happens, more conventional recovery in housing probably would be delayed until early 2012, when more sales and stable sold prices still expected to dominate Orange County housing markets for next 12 months.

 

This UCLA Anderson OC housing market forecast says:

• Median sold price of an O.C. home up to $460,545 in 2011 and up to $503,450 in 2012.   (Currently the median is $445,000)
• Selling Prices to continue rising through 2016, when projected median would be $639,650.  (peak median price for an year was $627,548 in 2006, and monthly high was $645,000 in June 2007). 
• Home sales volume up to 40,974 in 2011 from projected 32,139 this year. 
• Home sale projected to peak at 49,913 in 2014, then fall by 4.7% over next two years. (OC homeowners sold 54,120 sales in 2005, and housing slump started in 2006.) 

 

Its Summary of yearly predictions for Orange County housing markets:  

• For 2010 - median sold price of $428,381 with sales volume up 3.5% from prior year 
• For 2011 - median sold price of $460,545 with sales volume up 27.5% from prior year 
• For 2012 - median sold price of $503,450 with sales volume up 12.0% from prior year 
• for 2013 - median sold price of $538,750 with sales volume up 6.4% from prior year 
• for 2014 - median sold price of $577,619 with sales volume up 2.2% from prior year 

Source:  OCRegister.com, October 27, 2010

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Harrison K. Long - Business Solutions and Advisory - REALTOR® and broker associate, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - Phone: 949-854-7747  -  CA DRE 01410855 -    www.OCPropertyNews.com  -  www.CostaMesaLive.com  -  www.Irvine-homevalues.com  -  www.NewportCoastLive.com   -  www.CoastLivinghomes.com  -  www.OCHomeValueGuide.com -  www.LiveAtIrvine.com  -  www.ExploreOCHomes.com  -  www.LiveAtOrangeCounty.com - 

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Let's hope that UCLA Anderson is right about its forecast about Orange County housing markets and that we will see recovery during 2012 and beyond.