Investigators are looking to determine whether Standard and Poor's (S&P) over-rated dozens of mortgage-backed securities prior to the financial crisis. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been investigating the matter for several months, and the Justice Department recently joined the investigation,according to media reports.
The Treasury Department has accused S&P of basing its downgrade of the U.S. on a $2 trillion error – “a basic math error of significant consequence,” according to a statement earlier this month on Treasury’s website. After Treasury pointed out this error – a basic math error of significant consequence – S&P still chose to proceed with their flawed judgment by simply changing their principal rationale for their credit rating decision from an economic one to a political one.
S&P has said their decision to downgrade the U.S. was based in part on the fact that the Budget Control Act, which will reduce projected deficits by more than $2 trillion over the next 10 years, fell short of their $4 trillion expectation for deficit reduction. Clearly, in that context, S&P considers a $2 trillion change to projected deficits to be very significant. Yet, although S&P's math error understated the deficit reduction in the Budget Control Act by $2 trillion, they found this same sum insignificant in this instance.
In fact, S&P’s $2 trillion mistake led to a very misleading picture of debt sustainability – the foundation for their initial judgment. This mistake undermined the economic justification for S&P’s credit rating decision. Yet after acknowledging their mistake, S&P simply removed a prominent discussion of the economic justification from their document.
According to recent media reports, the Justice Department is now questioning whether S&P business managers may have overridden analysts’ advisements to give some mortgage bonds lower ratings than they were ultimately awarded.
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