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True Financial Security - The Importance of Foreseeing Trends

By
Real Estate Agent

http://www.myrljeffcoat.com

 

 

No question about it, the last several days of observing global financial markets hasn’t been for the faint of heart.  This is especially true for those with retirement funds, who have seen their accounts take a substantial hit!

I’m remembering an opening paragraph in the Charles Dickens book, “A Tale of Two Cities.”  It reads, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, and we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way-in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some if its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only." 

When I read Dickens words again for the first time since my youth, I realize how true they are in relation to much of life as it is experienced and perceived.


True Financial Security comes from the ability to foresee trends.

In the late 1980s Real Estate appeared to be on a never ending cycle of "The sky is the limit". . .It was difficult for us to foresee what was to occur in August of 1990 with the beginning of recession here in Sacramento. With the decline of the Real Estate market we began to see the stock market flourish after a time. Indeed, within the last few years the stock market has climbed significantly, to unprecedented numbers.


For the astute observer of the business world, this translates to the darkness of the stock market, possibly being the Light of the real estate market. Traditionally, real estate has performed well in an inflationary market. Unless interest rates become unreasonably high as they did in the 1970s and early 1980s.

However, during an inflationary market, the cost of goods (including housing), generally appreciate at a more rapid rate.

The housing market of today is still enjoying low mortgage interest rates.  Hopefully, the current Wall Street woes, will detain the Fed from raising interest rates in the near future.  The present time may be a wonderful window of opportunity for those wishing to wisely place capital for future growth in real estate investment.

It has been my belief that true financial security hinges on one’s ability to see trends in the business market place; and to not place all of one's eggs in one basket. The crucial point for the most growth is the ability to foretell when to buy what eggs for what basket.

Or you can use the analogy that Dickens uses with his season of "Darkness" and his season of "Light." The truth is, there is always Light and Darkness. Realizing there is always opportunity and choices to be made, gives us hope. It is also why some are successful, and others are not.

Dickens words in "The Tale of Two Cities" were meant to illustrate the happenings of a time he was documenting in the year of one thousand seven hundred and seventy-five (1775), two hundred forty years ago, and the year before the American Revolution. Yet the words could very well be written to describe this very day, or yesterday. Actually they could illustrate most any time period that man has shuffled across the planet.

Although most of us do not have a crystal ball, developing the ability to foresee trends, can make a significant difference in the world of housing and business investment.

Posted by

Myrl Jeffcoat ActiveRain Signature
  

Comments(32)

Yolanda Cordova-Gilbert
Richmond, TX

Myrl,

 I am saying Myrl for Congress, I did pick up some stocks they are down just a little but not much. The stock is has a big cash pile! Too bad the market lost steam again tomorrow another day!

Aug 25, 2015 08:41 AM
Myrl Jeffcoat
Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Realtor - Retired

Yolanda Cordova-Gilbert - Thank you for your vote of confidence.  But, I could never dwell in that current swamp pit called Congress.  I'm more confortable to trying to get things done!  Good for you in picking up some stocks at their lows.  I was sorry to see the Dow and Nasdaq lose steam today as well.  I was hopeful!

Aug 25, 2015 08:50 AM
Olga Simoncelli
Veritas Prime, LLC dba Veritas Prime Real Estate - New Fairfield, CT
CONSULTANT, Real Estate Services & Risk Management

As the words of a great writer demonstrate - some things never change. Economies are cyclical; institutions such as the Fed are just trying to level out the high's and the low's. If you know how to foresee the trends, you could make millions in the different markets!

Aug 25, 2015 09:03 AM
Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

In 26 years of reale state I have followed this mantra, "there is always a market, someone is always buying and someone is always selling". Just know who that is as market conditions change.

Aug 25, 2015 09:36 AM
Elizabeth Weintraub Sacramento Broker
Elizabeth Anne Weintraub, Broker - Sacramento, CA
Put 40 years of experience to work for you

I think also your point is that history repeats itself. We are not that unique nor that different than those 245 years ago, regardless of what we might believe.

Aug 25, 2015 09:46 AM
Chris Ann Cleland
Long and Foster Real Estate - Gainesville, VA
Associate Broker, Bristow, VA

I need to read that book.  I can't believe I never have.  And yes, foreseeing trends is very important to true financial security.

Aug 25, 2015 10:16 AM
Praful Thakkar
LAER Realty Partners - Burlington, MA
Metro Boston Homes For Sale

Myrl Jeffcoat wow! remembering the tale of two cities!

And as you mentioned - it's all about choices we make. The incrementant right choices will have compounding effect after a while, not immediately.

And who can predict the future?

Aug 25, 2015 03:10 PM
Lynn B. Friedman CRS Atlanta, GA 404-617-6375
Atlanta Homes ODAT Realty - Love our Great City - Love our Clients! Buckhead - Midtown - Westside - Atlanta, GA
Concierge Service for Our Atlanta Sellers & Buyers

Myrl Jeffcoat 
Good job reminding us of the recent past ...
One comment I always try to to remember is stated in two ways:
"Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it."
... attributed to an Irish Statesman, Edmond Burke (1729-1797) and

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
...
popularized by Poet and Philosopher George Santayana (1863-1952)

THANKS for the thought-provoking post reminding us to remember the past.

Have a successful day -
Lynn

Aug 25, 2015 11:44 PM
Don Hess
KW Elite Keller Williams 1280 Plaza Blvd. Lancaster, PA 17601 - Quarryville, PA

It's 9:54 on the 26th and the market is up by 285. But judging from the last 2 days, there's no telling how it will finish. But you're right, it is always "the best of times and the worst of times." 

Have a good one!

Aug 25, 2015 11:56 PM
Robert Bob Gilbert
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Anderson Properties - Katy, TX
Your Katy TX ( West of Houston) Real Estate Expert

Hi Myrl, Thanks for the link but they must have taken the video down as I got an error message. Volatility is how these Hedge Funds and big banks make lots of money so the Chairman and CEO can buy ocean front property wherever in the world thay want!! Plus stash all their bonus money offshore!!

Aug 26, 2015 12:56 AM
Myrl Jeffcoat
Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Realtor - Retired

Robert (Bob) Gilbert  - That is weird, I can put the link into a browser and bring it up.  Yet, if I try to click on it here in AR it corrupts and doesn't come up.  I'd suggest googling "CBS 60 Minutes Congress Trading Stocks on Inside Information."  I was able to access it that way!

Prepare to be shocked at the corruption!

Aug 26, 2015 01:11 AM
Robert Bob Gilbert
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Anderson Properties - Katy, TX
Your Katy TX ( West of Houston) Real Estate Expert

Hi Myrl, I copied your suggestion into Google search and found it. Thank You.. Congress members being crooks.. No surprise to me!! If I did insider trading I would go to jail!!

Aug 26, 2015 01:35 AM
Myrl Jeffcoat
Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Realtor - Retired

It's pretty sick isn't it Robert (Bob) Gilbert?

Aug 26, 2015 04:12 AM
Gayle Rich-Boxman Fishhawk Lake Real Estate
John L Scott Market Center - Birkenfeld, OR
"Your Local Expert!" 503-739-3843

Myrl, you are a wonder! Such a terrifically astute piece of writing. You are pretty remarkable! And I totally agree. 

I'm surprised that this wasn't featured. They missed a good one!

Aug 26, 2015 02:09 PM
Gary Woltal
Keller Williams Realty - Flower Mound, TX
Assoc. Broker Realtor SFR Dallas Ft. Worth

Foresee trends almost is defying the opposite statement that none of us has a crystal ball. Some are obvious, like the trend toward mobile computing over desktop. But a stock or industry going up or down over a period of time is incredibly hard to even understand let alone predict.  More and more people with the wild swings in the stock market seem to want less and less of their money there.

Aug 26, 2015 11:42 PM
Myrl Jeffcoat
Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Realtor - Retired

Gary Woltal - In many ways foreseeing trends is like defying the statement about none of us having a crystal ball.  However, if one keeps their ears to the ground, and becomes somewhat educated about past cycles, there can be an element of prediction.  It has been the lessening of regulation on banking and Wall Street that allows the players to get into mischief.  For the outsider, which most of us are, it is that mischief, that outguns prediction!

Aug 27, 2015 01:27 AM
Lou Ludwig
Ludwig & Associates - Boca Raton, FL
Designations Earned CRB, CRS, CIPS, GRI, SRES, TRC

Myrl

To foresee the trends . . . . keeps you in front of the curve . . . . and enables the person to make far better decisions.

Good luck and success.

Lou Ludwig 

Aug 27, 2015 10:21 AM
Jeff Dowler, CRS
eXp Realty of California, Inc. - Carlsbad, CA
The Southern California Relocation Dude

Myrl Jeffcoat 

You've written such an insightful post. Certainly the recent market shifts cause concern, but we've all seen and experienced economic upheaval before, in different ways, and it's happened for years. What's hard to see is the financial impact this has on so many people, and so quickly. I suspect there are some buyers who planned to sell some stock in order to buy a home and may now, at least for a time, see that no longer as a possibility. Volatility is always scary, especially since we really don't know what can happen. Each day brings new surprises

Jeff

Aug 28, 2015 11:07 AM
Barbara-Jo Roberts Berberi, MA, PSA, TRC - Greater Clearwater Florida Residential Real Estate Professional
Charles Rutenberg Realty - Clearwater, FL
Palm Harbor, Dunedin, Clearwater, Safety Harbor

What an excellent post, Myrl. History does indeed repeat itself and man doesn't seem to learn.

Sep 01, 2015 05:15 AM
Inna Ivchenko
Barcode Properties - Encino, CA
Realtor® • GRI • HAFA • PSC Calabasas CA

Well, I wish we had that ability to predict our financial future. I hear those words from my clients all the time: ''I wish I knew before what I know now!''

Sep 05, 2015 04:32 PM