WHAT ARE THE HOUSING STATISTICS FOR OCTOBER??

I have some questions also Lenn.  I don't think we are near out of the woods yet.

I think the DPA going away Oct 1  clearly had an effect on sales.  We could be in for more months of fewer sales even though prices are down.  I wonder what Mr Yun's statement will be then. With no DPA (or very little around) and mortgages harder to qualify for I look for slower sales for some time to come ... as you say, time will tell.

disclaimer.. I'm not an economist, so what do I know?  :)

Lenn, anomaly?  Is that word every used by the stat guys who are trying to interpret the market?

Lenn - I Just finished doing market reports for October and pending sales are definately down in my areas.  I have been busier over the past two weeks and was speaking with the managing broker of another firm in my town on Facebook yesterday and he has seen increased activity over the past two weeks as well, but it may just be a blip in the radar screen.  It will be interesting to see how the activity will be now that the election is over.

Pendings in our area are down also. We have a very affordable market and yet people are still nervous about the future.

I don't think it's in our best interest to have the Cheif Economist of the NAR cheerleading and I don't think his opinion and analysis of September's improved pending home sales shows a trend. It's one month. Increased affordability? Sure. Price stabilization? Not yet.

Lenn - Your stats are very interesting and definitely appear to bear out your analysis that increase in sales in September did indeed relate to the end of the DPA program.  It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year plays out.

There was a September rush in my area to beat the end of DPA followed by lower numbers in October. These are certainly trying times!

Hi Lenn, People can speculate on all the reasons till the cows come home, but I must say, your argument for the surge makes more sense and I don't know your market at all. And I also suspect that Mr. Yun probably doesn't either, :-). The media did pick it up and the NAR stats showed up in our local news. I didn't write on it because most of the national figures lend no direct insight to the local information that people here need and want. 

I post numbers at m/e as well as during each month and October was not a stellar month for sales here in WNC and our absorption rate is 'extensive.' Can't say I pay too much attention to the NAR numbers because they never seem to correlate to my numbers/location. (That's a kind way of putting it.)

Lenn, I haven't checked the pendings yet but we had 83 sales in Poinciana for October. That the highest we have had in about 2 years and a 30% increase for September. With great homes available in the 60s and 70s I believe we may have very well reached the bottom of the market price decline in Poinciana. I presented 5 offers last week and 4 of them were in multiple offer situations. Very positive stuff for my market.