Is last year's weatherman this year's real estate expert?

Is last year's weatherman this year's real estate expert?

Way back around November or December 2008, the experts said that the banks had a huge "shadow inventory" and that they would be releasing it to the marketplace around April and May 2009. When the banks did, the experts predicted that real estate prices would plummet. That didn't happen.

Back around November or December 2009, the experts said that the banks had a huge "shadow inventory" and that they would be releasing it to the marketplace around April and May 2010. When the banks did, the experts predicted that real estate prices would plummet. That didn't happen.

Back in July 2010, the experts said that the banks had a huge "shadow inventory" and that they would be releasing it to the marketplace around November and December 2010. When the banks do, the experts predict that real estate prices will plummet.

Hmmm.

If we think about this logically — and that's not to say that the world is logical, but when it concerns money, logic often does come into play — something's not making sense here. I don't know if you had a haunted house in your neighborhood when you were young, but those haunted houses usually resulted from no one living in them, so they fell apart from lack of maintenance and upkeep. I just can't imagine a bank either holding on to a property while it falls apart, thinking that the dilapidated property will be worth more, real soon, or holding on to it with all those holding and maintenance costs, thinking that they will recoup those costs when the market zooms back up. It's just not making sense to me.

I think banks are smarter than that. Even Bank of America! I do think, however, that there are some bank experts and some real estate experts who just want to continue to be seen as experts, and if nothing happens the way they predicted, well, no one can predict the future, they'll say.

Why would the banks purposefully hold on to so much inventory? I don't think they would, at least not purposefully. I submit that it's not because they are hoping for better weather sometime in the future, but rather that when the market started collapsing and banks started laying off staff, they got to the position where they simply don't have enough staff to handle all the work.

Well, then, why don't they hire more people? Because then they'd have increased costs via salaries, taxes, and benefits. As long as the market is stagnant, they can't really afford to do that, either. It's kind of a Catch 22 situation. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Are things getting better? It appears that they are here in San Diego. Home sales have been steadily increasing since February 2008, and home prices have been steadily increasing since February 2009. There are lots of reports from various experts — and I don't know if we should be trusting those experts.... — but I think I'm becoming one of those people who doesn't mind reporting the facts, but when it comes to predicting what's going to happen, I think I'm just as a good a weatherman as anyone else. In fact, I think all of us real estate agents are. Maybe it's time for us to do our on forecasting and predicting!

So here's my prediction: If you need a home to live in, raise a family in, retire in, and perhaps even die in, it doesn't matter when you buy that home, you'll do okay.

Is last year's weatherman this year's real estate expert?

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If you're looking for a great real estate agent in San Diego, well,
let me Google one for you.

I'm available 24/7, so feel free to contact me by phone or email.

Jim Frimmer, Realtor
Century 21 Award Mission Valley
California DRE License #01458572
619-729-5701
jimfrimmer@century21award.com
Mission Valley Condos Information

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Try RusselRayPhotos.com for inexpensive, royalty-free photos.

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