economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 10/8/2018
- 10/07/18 08:30 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 10/8/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
In the unlikely event of a water landing...
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 10/8: Market closed (Columbus Day).
Tues, 10/9: Quiet.
Weds, 10/10: PPI (5:30am), 3-Yr Note Auction (8:30am), 10-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Thurs, 10/11: CPI and Jobless Claims (5:30am), 30-Yr Bond Auction (11am).
Fri, 10/12: Import and Export Prices (5:30am), Consumer Sentiment (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
3.23% Friday's Close
3.09% One Week Ago
2.94% One Month Ago
2.35% One Year Ago
Race Week in Kona, Hawaii
Saturday, 10/13/18, will be the 40th edition of the Ironman Triathlon World Championship, which means that if you … (2 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 9/17/2018
- 09/16/18 07:55 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 9/17/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
I feel as though something tipped last week. No matter what the reports showed, the bond market wanted to move higher and rates increased as a result. It is unclear what will break this trend and certainly this week's news doesn't seem to have that capacity. In addition to what's below, be mindful of a new round of tariffs on China...
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 9/17: Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am).
Tues, 9/18: Housing Market Index (7am).
Weds, 9/19: Housing Starts (5:30am).
Thurs, 9/20: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Bus Outlook Survey and … (0 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 9/10/2018
- 09/02/18 08:02 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 9/10/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Key inflation readings on Wednesday and Thursday could make things very interesting.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 9/10: Quiet.
Tues, 9/11: JOLTS (7am), 3-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 9/12: PPI (5:30am),10-Yr Note Auction (10am), Beige Book (11am).
Thurs, 9/13: CPI and Jobless Claims (5:30am), 30-Yr Bond Auction (10am).
Fri, 9/14: Retail Sales and Import and Export Prices (5:30am), Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.94% Today's Open
2.90% One Week Ago
2.87% One Month Ago
2.14% One Year Ago
Corinthians 13: 4-8
This past weekend, I attended a cousin's wedding and was reminded … (0 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 9/3/2018
- 09/01/18 03:58 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 9/3/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Short week, but some important reports throughout and an employment focus at the end.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 9/3: Markets closed.
Tues, 9/4: PMI Mfg Index (6:45am), ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending (7am).
Weds, 9/5: International Trade (5:30am).
Thurs, 9/6: Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs (5:30am), Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg Index (7am).
Fri, 9/7: Employment Situation (5:30am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.86% Friday's Close
2.84% One Week Ago
2.95% One Month Ago
2.07% One Year Ago
I Have a Dream
Tuesday of last week came and went and it … (1 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 8/27/2018
- 08/26/18 04:25 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 8/27/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
We're getting back to business this week with auctions, GDP and enough other reports to keep things interesting.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 8/27: 2-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Tues, 8/28: International Trade in Goods (5:30am), Cash-Shiller HPI (6am), Consumer Confidence (7am), 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 8/29: GDP (5:30am), 7-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Thurs, 8/30: Jobless Claims and Personal Income and Outlays (5:30am).
Fri, 8/31: Chicago PMI (6:45am) and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.84% Today's Open
2.84% One Week Ago
2.96% One Month Ago
2.16% One … (0 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 8/20/2018
- 08/18/18 11:29 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 8/20/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Kind of a quiet week ahead. Who's up for heading to the beach one last time?
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 8/20: Quiet.
Tues, 8/21: Quiet.
Weds, 8/22: Existing Home Sales (7am) and FOMC (11am).
Thurs, 8/23: Jobless Claims (5:30am) and New Home Sales (7am).
Fri, 8/24: Durable Goods (5:30am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.84% Today's Open
2.88% One Week Ago
2.89% One Month Ago
2.18% One Year Ago
Randy Rhoads
Randy Rhoads was born into a musical family in 1956 and taught himself to play guitar at his mother's San Fernando … (1 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 8/13/2018
- 08/11/18 05:40 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 8/13/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
More dog days but the situation in Turkey could get interesting and it's worth keeping an eye on. If Friday's trend continues, stocks would suffer and the US bond market would benefit. This assumes rationality.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 8/13: Quiet.
Tues, 8/14: Import/export prices (5:30am).
Weds, 8/15: Retail Sales and Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am) and Industrial Production (6:15am).
Thurs, 8/16: Jobless Claims, Housing Starts and Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey (5:30am).
Fri, 8/17: Consumer Sentiment (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.88% Today's Open
2.98% One Week … (0 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 8/6/2018
- 08/04/18 01:16 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 8/6/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Dog days of summer...aside from auctions mid-week and inflation readings at the end.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 8/6: Quiet.
Tues, 8/7: JOLTS (7am) and 3-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 8/8: 10-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Thurs, 8/9: Jobless Claims and PPI (5:30am). 30-Yr Bond Auction (10am).
Fri, 8/10: CPI (5:30am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.93% Today's Open
2.98% One Week Ago
2.82% One Month Ago
2.26% One Year Ago
The Far Side
On a whim, and to the creator's surprise, the San Francisco Chronicle picked up and syndicated a little-known cartoon called Nature's Way and began running … (0 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 7/30/2018
- 07/29/18 09:36 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 7/30/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Things could get interesting with the Fed meeting, though no rate hike is expected. Chase that with the jobs numbers on Friday --- likely a very active week.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 7/30: Pending Home Sales (7am).
Tues, 7/31: Chicago PMI (6:45am) and Consumer Confidence (10am).
Weds, 8/1: ADP Employment (5:15am), ISM Manufacturing Index (7am) and FOMC Meeting (11am).
Thurs, 8/2: Jobless Claims (5:30am) and Factory Orders (10am).
Fri, 8/3: Employment Situation (5:30am) and ISM Non-Mfg Index (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.98% Today's Open
2.92% One Week Ago
2.85% One Month Ago
2.30% … (2 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 7/23/2018
- 07/22/18 12:55 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 7/23/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
GDP at the end of the week and auctions in the middle, but let's not discount the significance of what happened with comments from the President regarding the Fed. Bloomberg chimes in on it HERE. Could this be our next real rate driver?
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 7/23: Existing Home Sales (7am).
Tues, 7/24: PMI Composite Flash (6:45am) and 2-Year Note auction (10am).
Weds, 7/25: New Home Sales (7am) and 5-Year Note auction (10am).
Thurs, 7/26: Durable Goods, International Trade in Goods and Jobless Claims (5:30am) and 7-Year Note auction (10am).
Fri, … (0 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 7/16/2018
- 07/16/18 07:07 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 7/16/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Not a heavy week of big reports, though we're opening lower already. With the outcome of the Russia "summit" and China's trade reaction, I guess "we'll see what happens."
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 7/16: Retail Sales and Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am).
Tues, 7/17: Industrial Production (6:15am) and Housing Market Index (7am).
Weds, 7/18: Housing Starts (5:30am).
Thurs, 7/19: Philadelphia Fed Bus Outlook Survey and Jobless Claims (5:30am).
Fri, 7/20: Quiet.
10-Year Treasury History
2.86% Today's Open
2.86% One Week Ago
2.93% One Month Ago
2.31% One Year Ago
Scott Joplin
When … (0 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 7/9/2018
- 07/06/18 12:00 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 7/9/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Inflation readings mid-week and, I don't know about you, but I see trade tension escalating...
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 7/9: Quiet.
Tues, 7/10: JOLTS (7am) and 3-Year Note auction (10am).
Weds, 7/11: PPI (5:30am) and 10-Year Note auction (10am).
Thurs, 7/12: CPI and Jobless Claims (5:30am) and 30-Year Bond auction (10am).
Fri, 7/13: Import and Export Prices (5:30am) and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.86% Today's Open
2.85% One Week Ago
2.93% One Month Ago
2.38% One Year Ago
Vietnam Veterans Memorial
Me: "Man, he was 20 years-old when he … (1 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 6/25/2018
- 06/24/18 06:18 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 6/25/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
There is enough economic data on the calendar to keep things interesting, but escalating trade war actions may be the driver (again...).
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 6/25: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (5:30am) and New Home Sales (7am).
Tues, 6/26: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (6am), Consumer Confidence (7am) and 2-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 6/27: Durable Goods (5:30am) and Pending Home Sales (7am). 5-Yr Note Auction (10am)
Thurs, 6/28: Jobless Claims and GDP revision (5:30am). 7-Yr Note Auction (10am)
Fri, 6/29: Core PCE (5:30am), Chicago PMI (6:45am) and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.89% Today's Open
2.92% One Week … (0 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 6/11/2018
- 06/10/18 06:12 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 6/11/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
This week could go nuclear, no pun intended. The week will start with the world making sense of what happened at G7, then figure out what will happen with North Korea, then watch the Fed raise rates, all the while with a backdrop of shifting sands in Europe.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 6/11: 3-Yr Note Auction (8:30am) and 10-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Tues, 6/12: CPI (5:30am) and 30-Yr Bond Auction (10am).
Weds, 6/13: PPI (5:30am) and FOMC Meeting Announcement (11am).
Thurs, 6/14: Jobless Claims, Retail Sales and Import/Export Prices (5:30am).
Fri, 6/15: … (5 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 5/14/2018
- 05/13/18 07:38 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 5/14/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Relatively quiet week aside from a lot of Fed member speeches, but I am going to put oil prices on the radar too. Heightened Middle East tension could spill over, through oil, into stock and bond markets.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 5/14: Quiet.
Tues, 5/15: Retail Sales and Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am) and Housing Market Index (7am).
Weds, 5/16: Housing Starts (5:30am) and Industrial Production (6:15am)
Thurs, 5/17: Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (5:30am).
Fri, 5/18: Quiet.
10-Year Treasury History
2.99% Today
2.95% One Week Ago
2.82% One Month Ago
2.34% One … (5 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 5/07/2018
- 05/06/18 02:46 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 5/07/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Inflation readings on Weds/Thurs plus auctions should keep the bond market active.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 5/7: Quiet.
Tues, 5/8: JOLTS (7am) and 3-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 5/9: PPI (5:30am) and 10-Yr Note Auction (10am)
Thurs, 5/10: CPI and Jobless Claims (5:30am). 30-Yr Bond Auction (10am)
Fri, 5/11: Import and Export Prices (5:30am) and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.95% Today
2.95% One Week Ago
2.89% One Month Ago
2.39% One Year Ago
Nazare', Portugal
I only tried to surf once and it was in the small fry off of Santa Monica. But it doesn't take … (1 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 4/30/2018
- 04/28/18 06:55 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 4/30/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Very high. Really big week with a lot of reports and a Fed announcement (though no change to rates expected).
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 4/30: Personal Income and Outlays (5:30am), Chicago PMI (6:45am).
Tues, 5/1: PMI Mfg Index (6:45am) and ISM Mfg Index (7am).
Weds, 5/2: ADP Employment (5:15am). FOMC Meeting Announcement (11am).
Thurs, 5/3: International Trade and Jobless Claims (5:30am). Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg Index (10am).
Fri, 5/4: Employment Situation (5:30am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.95% Today
2.98% One Week Ago
2.74% One Month Ago
2.33% One Year Ago
The Cat's in the Cradle
I grew … (3 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 4/23/2018
- 04/21/18 08:14 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 4/23/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Busy week of reports and auctions. GDP on Friday.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 4/23: PMI Composite Flash (6:45am) and Existing Home Sales (7am).
Tues, 4/24: New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Mfg Index (7am). 2-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 4/25: 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Thurs, 4/26: Durable Goods, International Trade in Goods and Jobless Claims (5:30am). 7-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Fri, 4/27: GDP (5:30am), Chicago PMI (6:45am) and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.98% Today
2.85% One Week Ago
2.82% One Month Ago
2.28% One Year Ago
R. Lee Ermey
Well, I … (1 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 4/16/2018
- 04/14/18 08:55 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 4/16/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Not a lot of key reports, so the market will likely take outside cues.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 4/16: Retail Sales and Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am).
Tues, 4/17: Housing Starts (5:30am) and Industrial Production (6:15am).
Weds, 4/18: Quiet.
Thurs, 4/19: Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (5:30am).
Fri, 4/20: Quiet.
10-Year Treasury History
2.85% Today
2.81% One Week Ago
2.85% One Month Ago
2.26% One Year Ago
Dorothy Parker
Dorothy Parker had an unhappy childhood, little regard for her own writing prowess and an estate that she left to Martin Luther King … (1 comments)
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economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 4/2/2018
- 03/31/18 08:27 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 4/2/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Mid to High. Jobs report on Friday --- watch out for indications of wage growth.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 4/2: PMI Mfg Index (6:45am). ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending (10am).
Tues, 4/3: Quiet.
Weds, 4/4: ADP Employment (5:15am), Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg Index (7am).
Thurs, 4/5: Jobless Claims and International Trade (5:30am).
Fri, 4/6: Employment situation (5:30am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.76% Today
2.85% One Week Ago
2.86% One Month Ago
2.35% One Year Ago
Mr. T
On or shortly after May 28, 1982, I remember being dropped off at either Yorktown or Oakbrook to … (0 comments)
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Lock Watch for the Week of 10/8/2018
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